IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/87743.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Beyond Normalization of Trade Ties - A Pakistan – India Free Trade Agreement (FTA): A Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model (SFGM) Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Kamal, Asmma

Abstract

Several studies have estimated a large bilateral trade potential and have emphasized on normalization of trade ties between Pakistan and India, the two largest economics in the South Asian region. However, this paper explores the possibility of bilateral trade beyond MFN (Most-favoured Nation) basis and examines the potential of a deeper economic integration through a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between Pakistan and India. In the above context, this paper employs the Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model (SFGM) to quantitatively measure the influence of “behind the border” constraints on achieving Pakistan’s maximum export potential towards India during 2013-15. Results confirm that Pakistan has a large unrealized export potential with India. They further indicate that the potential for an FTA appears to be significant, but contingent upon the effective reduction of “behind the border” constraints limiting Pakistan’s export potential.

Suggested Citation

  • Kamal, Asmma, 2016. "Beyond Normalization of Trade Ties - A Pakistan – India Free Trade Agreement (FTA): A Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model (SFGM) Approach," MPRA Paper 87743, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:87743
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/87743/1/MPRA_paper_87743.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Roemer, John E, 1977. "The Effect of Sphere of Influence and Economic Distance on the Commodity Composition of Trade in Manufactures," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 59(3), pages 318-327, August.
    2. Drysdale, Peter & Garnaut, Ross, 1982. "Trade Intensities and the Analysis of Bilateral Trade Flows in a Many-Country World : A Survey," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 22(2), pages 62-84, February.
    3. Geetha Ravishankar & Marie M. Stack, 2014. "The Gravity Model and Trade Efficiency: A Stochastic Frontier Analysis of Eastern European Countries' Potential Trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(5), pages 690-704, May.
    4. Meeusen, Wim & van den Broeck, Julien, 1977. "Efficiency Estimation from Cobb-Douglas Production Functions with Composed Error," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 18(2), pages 435-444, June.
    5. Jong-Wha Lee & Ju Hyun Pyun, 2016. "Does Trade Integration Contribute to Peace?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 327-344, February.
    6. Robert J. Barro, 2006. "Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(3), pages 823-866.
    7. A. Porojan, 2001. "Trade Flows and Spatial Effects: The Gravity Model Revisited," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 265-280, July.
    8. S. Brock Blomberg & Gregory D. Hess, 2006. "How Much Does Violence Tax Trade?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 599-612, November.
    9. Sasidaran Gopalan & Ammar A. Malik & Kenneth A. Reinert, 2013. "The Imperfect Substitutes Model in South Asia," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 14(2), pages 211-230, September.
    10. Kaliappa Kalirajan & Swapan Bhattacharya, 2008. "Free Trade Arrangement Between India and Japan: An Exploratory Analysis," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Raghbendra Jha (ed.), The Indian Economy Sixty Years After Independence, chapter 8, pages 137-151, Palgrave Macmillan.
    11. Khan, Imran Ullah & Kalirajan, Kaliappa, 2011. "The impact of trade costs on exports: An empirical modeling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1341-1347, May.
    12. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-481, August.
    13. Shujaat Abbas & Abdul Waheed, 2015. "Pakistan’s potential export flow: The gravity model approach," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 49(4), pages 367-377, October-D.
    14. Donald R. Davis & David E. Weinstein, 2002. "Bones, Bombs, and Break Points: The Geography of Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1269-1289, December.
    15. Kishore Gawande and Pravin Krishna, 2001. "The Political Economy of Trade Policy: Empirical Approaches," Working Papers 2001-38, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    16. repec:lje:journl:v:19:y:2014:i:sp:p:327-348 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. K. Kalirajan, 1999. "Stochastic varying coefficients gravity model: An application in trade analysis," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2), pages 185-193.
    18. De, Prabir & Raihan, Selim & Ghani, Ejaz, 2013. "What does MFN trade mean for India and Pakistan ? can MFN be a Panacea ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6483, The World Bank.
    19. Murshed, Mansoob & Mamoon, Dawood, 2008. "The consequences of Not Loving thy neigbor as Thyself: Trade, democracy and military explainations behind India Pakistan rivalry," MPRA Paper 10429, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-116, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Swapan K. Bhattacharya & Gouranga G. Das, 2014. "Can South–South Trade Agreements Reduce Development Deficits?," Journal of South Asian Development, , vol. 9(3), pages 253-285, December.
    2. Das, Gouranga & Bhattacharya, Swapan K., 2009. "Do south-south trade agreements enhance member countries' trade? evaluating implications for development potential in the context of SAARC," MPRA Paper 37255, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Oct 2010.
    3. Md Rajibul Ahsan & Son Ngoc Chu, 2014. "The Potential and Constraints of the Exports of Environmental Goods (EGs): the case of Bangladesh," ASARC Working Papers 2014-05, The Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre.
    4. Gustavo Rodriguez & Jorge Davalos, 2017. "El Potencial de Comercio del Acuerdo Trans-Pacifico para el Peru, un enfoque Gravitacional," Revista Internacional de Gestión del Conocimiento y la Tecnología (GECONTEC), Revista Internacional de Gestión del Conocimiento y la Tecnología (GECONTEC), vol. 5(2), pages 93-107, October.
    5. Shiro Armstrong, 2007. "Measuring Trade and Trade Potential: A Survey," Asia Pacific Economic Papers 368, Australia-Japan Research Centre, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. Khan, Imran Ullah & Kalirajan, Kaliappa, 2011. "The impact of trade costs on exports: An empirical modeling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1341-1347, May.
    7. Tina Barma, 2017. "Efficiency of India’s Agricultural Exports," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 18(2), pages 276-295, September.
    8. Evelyn S. Devadason & Shujaat Mubarik, 2020. "ASEAN and the EU: an assessment of interregional trade potentials," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 705-726, July.
    9. Ebaidalla Mahjoub Ebaidalla & Mohammed Elhaj Mustafa Ali, 2018. "Assessing the Intra-Arab Trade Integration and Potential: Evidence from Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model," Working Papers 1247, Economic Research Forum, revised 07 Nov 2018.
    10. Michael Tutu Boadu & Camara Kwasi Obeng & Isaac Dasmani & William Gabriel Brafu‐Insaidoo, 2021. "Assessing Ghana's bilateral exports potential and gap," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 33(4), pages 634-647, December.
    11. Dinda, Soumyananda, 2018. "Climate Friendly Goods and Technology Trade: Climate Mitigation Strategy of India," MPRA Paper 93031, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2018.
    12. Dinda, Soumyananda, 2013. "Climate Change Creates Trade Opportunity in India," MPRA Paper 50636, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Oct 2013.
    13. Enkang Li & Mengqiu Lu & Yu Chen, 2020. "Analysis of China’s Importance in “Belt and Road Initiative” Trade Based on a Gravity Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-21, August.
    14. Shahbaz Nasir & Kaliappa Kalirajan, 2016. "Information and Communication Technology-Enabled Modern Services Export Performances of Asian Economies," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 33(1), pages 1-27, March.
    15. Sgrignoli, Paolo & Metulini, Rodolfo & Schiavo, Stefano & Riccaboni, Massimo, 2015. "The relation between global migration and trade networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 417(C), pages 245-260.
    16. Nazir Muhammad Abdullahi & Xuexi Huo & Qiangqiang Zhang & Aminah Bolanle Azeez, 2021. "Determinants and Potential of Agri-Food Trade Using the Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model: Empirical Evidence From Nigeria," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(4), pages 21582440211, December.
    17. Bonginkosi Mamba & André C Jordaan & Matthew Clance, 2015. "Globalisation and Conflicts: A Theoretical Approach," Working Papers 201555, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    18. Shujaat Abbas, 2018. "Free Trade Agreements and International Trade Flow of Pakistan: the Gravity Modelling Approach," Journal Global Policy and Governance, Transition Academia Press, vol. 7(2), pages 71-84.
    19. Jong-Wha Lee & Ju Hyun Pyun, 2016. "Does Trade Integration Contribute to Peace?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 327-344, February.
    20. Michida, Etsuyo & Atici, Cemal & Kojima, Michikazu, 2011. "Does Quality Matter in the Iron and Scrap Trade?," IDE Discussion Papers 282, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Free Trade Agreement (FTA); Pakistan; India; Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model (SFGM); Regional trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:87743. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.