Conditional Preference for Flexibility: Eliciting Beliefs from Behavior
Following Kreps (1979), we consider a decision maker with uncertain beliefs about her own future taste. This uncertainty leaves the decision maker with preference for flexibility: When choosing among menus containing alternatives for future choice, she weakly prefers larger menus. Existing representations accommodating this choice pattern cannot distinguish tastes (indexed by a subjective state space) and beliefs (a probability measure over the subjective states) as different concepts, making it impossible to relate parameters of the representation to choice behavior. We allow choice among menus to depend on exogenous states, interpreted as information. Our axioms yield a representation that uniquely identifies beliefs, provided the impact of information on choice is rich. The result is suggested as a choice theoretic foundation for the assumption, commonly made in the incomplete contracting literature, that contracting parties, who know each other's ranking of contracts, also share beliefs about each others future tastes in the face of unforeseen contingencies.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Edi Karni, 2007.
"Bayesian Decision Theory and the Representation of Beliefs,"
321307000000000776, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Edi Karni, 2007. "Bayesian Decision Theory and the Representation of Beliefs," Discussion Paper Series dp444, The Federmann Center for the Study of Rationality, the Hebrew University, Jerusalem.
- Eddie eckel & Barton L Lipman & Aldo Rustichini & Todd Sarver, 2005. "Representing Preferences with a Unique Subjective State Space: Corrigendum," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-042, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Klaus Nehring, 2003.
"Preference for Flexibility and Freedom of Choice in a Savage Framework,"
9615, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
- Klaus Nehring, . "Preference For Flexibility And Freedom Of Choice In A Savage Framework," Department of Economics 96-15, California Davis - Department of Economics.
- Ozdenoren, Emre, 2002. "Completing the State Space with Subjective States," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 531-539, August.
- Eric Maskin & Jean Tirole, 1999. "Unforeseen Contingencies and Incomplete Contracts," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(1), pages 83-114.
- Larry Epstein, 2005.
"An Axiomatic Model of Non-Bayesian Updating,"
RCER Working Papers
521, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Oliver Hart & John Moore, 1999. "Foundations of Incomplete Contracts," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(1), pages 115-138.
- W. Pesendorfer & F. Gul, 1999.
"Temptation and Self-Control,"
Princeton Economic Theory Papers
99f1, Economics Department, Princeton University.
- Eddie Dekel, 1997.
"A Unique Subjective State Space for Unforeseen Contingencies,"
1202, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Dekel, Eddie & Lipman, Barton L & Rustichini, Aldo, 2001. "Representing Preferences with a Unique Subjective State Space," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(4), pages 891-934, July.
- Grant, S. & Karni, E., 2002.
"Why Does it Matter that Beliefs and Valuations be Correctly Represented?,"
2002-12, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Simon Grant & Edi Karni, 2005. "Why Does It Matter That Beliefs And Valuations Be Correctly Represented?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 46(3), pages 917-934, 08.
- Grant, Simon & Karni, Edi, 2003. "Why Does It Matter That Beliefs and Valuations Be Correctly Represented?," Working Papers 2003-02, Rice University, Department of Economics.
- Dekel, Eddie & Lipman, Barton L. & Rustichini, Aldo, 1998. "Recent developments in modeling unforeseen contingencies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-5), pages 523-542, May.
- Jean Tirole, 1999. "Incomplete Contracts: Where Do We Stand?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(4), pages 741-782, July.
- Karni, E. & Mongin, P., 1997.
"On the Determination of Subjective Probability by Choices,"
9737, Paris X - Nanterre, U.F.R. de Sc. Ec. Gest. Maths Infor..
- Edi Karni & Philippe Mongin, 2000. "On the Determination of Subjective Probability by Choices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(2), pages 233-248, February.
- E. Karni & Ph. Mongin, 1997. "On the determination of subjective probability by choices," THEMA Working Papers 97-37, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
- Ariel Rubinstein & Yuval Salant, 2007. "(A,f) Choice with Frames," Levine's Bibliography 843644000000000029, UCLA Department of Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:8614. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.