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Modeling with scenarios: technology in north-south development


  • Chichilnisky, Graciela
  • Cole, Sam


This article outlines work in progress on a study of technological choice in the context of North-South development. Its main purpose is to describe the methodology being developed in the pilot phase of the study. This is of interest because it links together a number of analytic techniques--sociopolitical scenario analysis, macroeconomic modelling, and certain microstudies. The methodological problems are general to much forecasting activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Chichilnisky, Graciela & Cole, Sam, 1978. "Modeling with scenarios: technology in north-south development," MPRA Paper 7847, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:7847

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Chichilnisky, Graciela, 1981. "Terms of trade and domestic distribution : Export-led growth with abundant labour," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 163-192, April.
    2. repec:ilo:ilowps:163532 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Hopkins, Mike & Scolnik H. & Mclean M., 1975. "Basic needs, growth and redistribution; a quantitative approach," ILO Working Papers 991635323402676, International Labour Organization.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bradfield, Ron & Cairns, George & Wright, George, 2015. "Teaching scenario analysis—An action learning pedagogy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 44-52.
    2. Chichilnisky, Graciela & Cole, Sam, 1979. "A model of technology, domestic distribution and North-South relations," MPRA Paper 7999, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item


    modelling; modeling; scenarios; north-south; north; south; development; developing; economics; technology; macroeconomic; macroeconomic model; socio-technical; production; consumption; basic goods; luxury goods; microeconomic; developing; technology; production systems; labour; labor; labour output; labor output; capital; growth; population; price; scenario analysis; sociopolitical; quantitative;

    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling


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