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اختبار القدرة على التنبؤ بعوائد مؤشر سوق الدار البيضاء المالي من 2007 إلى 2011
[Testing the Predictability of Casablanca Stock Exchange Returns (2007-2011)]

Author

Listed:
  • BEKHALED, Aicha
  • DADENE, Abdelghani
  • CHIKHI, Mohamed

Abstract

تهدف هذه الدراسة إلى اختبار ما إذا كانت سلسلة عائد المؤشر العام لسوق الدار البيضاء مستقلة فيما بينها وتتبع السير العشوائي، حيث قمنا بتقدير مدى انحراف سلسلة مؤشر العائد عن الكفاءة على المستوى الضعيف من خلال اختبار القدرة على التنبؤ بالعوائد على المدى القصير، باقتراح نموذج وقد شملت العينة بيانات تاريخية لسعر إغلاق المؤشر العام لسوق الدار البيضاء، خلال الفترة من 2007 إلى 2011، وهي مشاهدات يومية، تبلغ 827 مشاهدة، وقد وجدنا أن النموذج المقترح أفضل من نموذج السير لعشوائي من حيث الجودة التنبؤية، وأن عوائد مؤشر سوق الدار البيضاء المالي قابلة للتنبؤ على المدى القصير، وحركة الأسعار تظهر كنتيجة لصدمة خارجية عابرة ، وبالتالي فالسوق لا يعتبر كفؤا عند المستوى الضعيف. The study aims to test whether the Casablanca Stock exchange returns are independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.). We use ARIMA(1,1,0)-GARCH(1,1) model to test the forecastability of stock exchange returns series. The empirical study focuses on the logarithmic series of daily Moroccan stock exchange series covering a historical period from 2007 to 2011. We have found that the proposed model is better than the random walk model in terms of predictive quality, and the Casablanca Stock exchange returns is predictable for short-term and the price movements appear as a result of transitory exogenous shock, therefore the weak efficiency assumption of financial markets seems violated.

Suggested Citation

  • BEKHALED, Aicha & DADENE, Abdelghani & CHIKHI, Mohamed, 2014. "اختبار القدرة على التنبؤ بعوائد مؤشر سوق الدار البيضاء المالي من 2007 إلى 2011 [Testing the Predictability of Casablanca Stock Exchange Returns (2007-2011)]," MPRA Paper 76629, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2014.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:76629
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jensen, Michael C., 1978. "Some anomalous evidence regarding market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2-3), pages 95-101.
    2. Patro, Dilip K. & Wu, Yangru, 2004. "Predictability of short-horizon returns in international equity markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 553-584, September.
    3. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
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    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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