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Die Rentenreform in der Diskussion Ein Mikrosimulationsmodell für die Altersvorsorge in Deutschland (AVID-PRO)

Author

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  • Schatz, Christof
  • Merz, Joachim

Abstract

Anfang diesen Jahres wurden die Ergebnisse der Studie "Altersvorsorge in Deutschland 1996 (AVID '96)" veröffentlicht. Diese Studie beschreibt die zukünftige Alterseinkommenssituation der heute noch erwerbstätigen Bevölkerung. Zentraler Bestandteil ist die Schätzung der zukünftigen weiteren Verläufe der Erwerbsbiographien. In der vorliegenden Arbeit soll das Instrument dieser Projektion, das Mikrosimulationsmodell AVID-PRO für die Fortschreibung der Erwerbsbiographien zur Analyse der Alterseinkommen der 1996 40 bis 60-jährigen Erwerbsbevölkerung in Deutschland (AVID-PRO) dargestellt werden. Für dieses Mikrosimulationsmodell wurden im ersten Schritt Längsschnitt- und Querschnittsdaten zur Erwerbsbiographie von ca. 14.000 Personen erhoben. Im zweiten Schritt wurden diese Daten mittels verschiedener Regressionsverfahren auf Entwicklungstrends zwischen 1992 und 1996 untersucht, um daraus für die Fortschreibung geeignete Modelle mikroökonometrisch schätzen zu können. Im Mittelpunkt der mikrosimulationsgestützten Projektion (AVID-PRO) stehen die drei Teilmodelle für die Variablen ”Soziale Erwerbssituation”, ”Einkommen” und ”Wochenarbeitszeit”. Damit wurde die Erwerbsbiographie jedes Probanden von seinem Alter bei der Befragung bis zu seinem 65. Lebensjahr mittels der Mikrosimulation fortgeschrieben. Neben diesen Verhaltensgleichungen beinhaltet AVID-PRO eine Vielzahl detaillierter institutioneller Regelungen der verschiedenen Alterssicherungssysteme. Auf der Basis der durch AVID-PRO vervollständigten Biographiedaten wurden die Alterseinkommen der Probanden aus den verschiedenen Alterssicherungssystemen und -vorsorgemaßnahmen berechnet. Ausgewählte Ergebnisse werden vorgestellt. Damit steht insgesamt in Deutschland für die aktuelle Rentenreformdebatte ein leistungsfähiges Mikrosimulationsmodell für die Analyse alternativer Politikvorschläge zur Alterssicherung auf der Basis einer breiten repräsentativen verknüpften Stichprobe mit allen Möglichkeiten zu verteilungs- und finanzierungspolitischen Auswertungen über die Individualebene zur Verfügung.

Suggested Citation

  • Schatz, Christof & Merz, Joachim, 2000. "Die Rentenreform in der Diskussion Ein Mikrosimulationsmodell für die Altersvorsorge in Deutschland (AVID-PRO)," MPRA Paper 7328, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:7328
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Joachim Merz, 1994. "Microdata Adjustment by the Minimum Information Loss Principle," FFB-Discussionpaper 10, Research Institute on Professions (Forschungsinstitut Freie Berufe (FFB)), LEUPHANA University Lüneburg.
    2. Merz, Joachim, 1991. "Microsimulation -- A survey of principles, developments and applications," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 77-104, May.
    3. Mitton,Lavinia & Sutherland,Holly & Weeks,Melvyn (ed.), 2000. "Microsimulation Modelling for Policy Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521790062.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Rentenreform; Altersvorsorge; Mikrosimulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I30 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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