Morgentauov plan i Vašingtonski konsenzus: ima li razvojnog izlaza za zemlje u tranziciji[Morgenthau’s plan and Washington’s consensus: is there the development way for the tranzition countries]

English Abstract. The paper considers the problems of the reforms so called post-comunist countries, they on Washington’s consensus are based. Them caracterise mostly three key points – privatization, deregulation and macroeconomic stability. Contrary to ordinary opinions that tranzition crisis show as result of inconsistency in reforms taking, the paper says this is normaly its result. As an analogue is the Morgenthau’s plan for West Germany observed, that has promoted Germany to industrial disarmament, and that would lead to its poverty and its transformation into raw material basis for the developed economies, and according to these to impossibility of survival of the existing number of population. Fortunately for the Germany, Morgenthau’s plan was abandonen and Marshall’s plan was introduced. It lead to industrial renewal of Germany. For the countries of Eastern Europe it is necessary the same: abandon neoliberal konception based on Washington’s consensus and implement conception of industrialization. Serbian Abstract. U radu se razmatraju problemi reformi tzv. postkomunističkih zemalja, zasnovanih na Vašingtonskom konsenzusu kojeg karakterišu prevashodno tri ključne tačke – privatizacija, deregulacija i makroekonomska stabilizacija. Nasuprot uvreženim mišljenjima da je tranziciona kriza rezultat nedoslednosti u sprovođenju reformi, u radu se ističe da je ona upravo suprotno zakonomeran njihov rezultat i da drugačije i nije moglo da bude. Kao analog ističe se Morgentauov plan za Zapadnu Nemačku, kojim je bilo predviđeno da Nemačka bude industrijski razoružana, što bi vodilo njenom siromašenju i pretvaranju u sirovinski dodatak drugim razvijenim privredama, i shodno tome do nemogućnosti opstanka postojećeg broja stanovnika. Na sreću po Nemačku, Morgentauov plan je napušten i zamenjen Maršalovim planom koji joj je obezbedio industrijsku obnovu. I za zemlje istočne Evrope potrebno je isto to: napuštanje neoliberalne koncepcije zasnovane na Vašingtonskom konsenzusu i primena koncepcije industrijalizacije.