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Can solar activity influence the occurrence of economic recessions?

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  • Gorbanev, Mikhail

Abstract

This paper revisits evidence of solar activity influence on the economy. We examine whether economic recessions occur more often in the years around and after solar maximums. This research strand dates back to late XIX century writings of famous British economist William Stanley Jevons, who claimed that “commercial crises” occur with periodicity matching solar cycle length. Quite surprisingly, our results suggest that the hypothesis linking solar maximums and recessions is well anchored in data and cannot be easily rejected.

Suggested Citation

  • Gorbanev, Mikhail, 2015. "Can solar activity influence the occurrence of economic recessions?," MPRA Paper 65502, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:65502
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/65502/1/MPRA_paper_65502.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gorbanev, Mikhail, 2012. "Sunspots, unemployment, and recessions, or Can the solar activity cycle shape the business cycle?," MPRA Paper 40271, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Aruoba, S. BoraÄŸan & Diebold, Francis X. & Scotti, Chiara, 2009. "Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 417-427.
    3. Carlos Garcia-Mata & Felix I. Shaffner, 1934. "Solar and Economic Relationships: A Preliminary Report," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 49(1), pages 1-51.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gorbanev, Mikhail, 2020. "Shifting Pattern of Extraordinary Economic and Social Events in Relation to the Solar Cycle," MPRA Paper 102163, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Gorbanev, Mikhail, 2025. "Extraordinary Economic and Social Events Associated with the Solar Cycle Maximum," MPRA Paper 123402, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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