IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/65502.html

Can solar activity influence the occurrence of economic recessions?

Author

Listed:
  • Gorbanev, Mikhail

Abstract

This paper revisits evidence of solar activity influence on the economy. We examine whether economic recessions occur more often in the years around and after solar maximums. This research strand dates back to late XIX century writings of famous British economist William Stanley Jevons, who claimed that “commercial crises” occur with periodicity matching solar cycle length. Quite surprisingly, our results suggest that the hypothesis linking solar maximums and recessions is well anchored in data and cannot be easily rejected.

Suggested Citation

  • Gorbanev, Mikhail, 2015. "Can solar activity influence the occurrence of economic recessions?," MPRA Paper 65502, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:65502
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/65502/1/MPRA_paper_65502.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gorbanev, Mikhail, 2012. "Sunspots, unemployment, and recessions, or Can the solar activity cycle shape the business cycle?," MPRA Paper 40271, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Aruoba, S. BoraÄŸan & Diebold, Francis X. & Scotti, Chiara, 2009. "Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 417-427.
    3. Carlos Garcia-Mata & Felix I. Shaffner, 1934. "Solar and Economic Relationships: A Preliminary Report," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 49(1), pages 1-51.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gorbanev, Mikhail, 2020. "Shifting Pattern of Extraordinary Economic and Social Events in Relation to the Solar Cycle," MPRA Paper 102163, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Gorbanev, Mikhail, 2025. "Extraordinary Economic and Social Events Associated with the Solar Cycle Maximum," MPRA Paper 123402, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Faria, Gonçalo & Verona, Fabio, 2023. "Forecast combination in the frequency domain," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 1/2023, Bank of Finland.
    2. Libero Monteforte & Valentina Raponi, 2019. "Short‐term forecasts of economic activity: Are fortnightly factors useful?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 207-221, April.
    3. Chuliá, Helena & Garrón, Ignacio & Uribe, Jorge M., 2024. "Daily growth at risk: Financial or real drivers? The answer is not always the same," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 762-776.
    4. Büyükşahin, Bahattin & Robe, Michel A., 2014. "Speculators, commodities and cross-market linkages," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 38-70.
    5. Armendáriz Villarreal Thelma & Ramírez Claudia, 2015. "Estimation of a Financial Conditions Index for Mexico," Working Papers 2015-17, Banco de México.
    6. Tommaso Proietti, 2008. "Estimation of Common Factors Under Cross-Sectional and Temporal Aggregation Constraints: Nowcasting Monthly GDP and Its Main Components," Springer Books, in: Paula Brito (ed.), Compstat 2008, pages 547-558, Springer.
    7. Rozite, Kristiana & Bezemer, Dirk J. & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M., 2019. "Towards a financial cycle for the U.S., 1973–2014," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    8. John W. Galbraith & Greg Tkacz, 2009. "A Note on Monitoring Daily Economic Activity Via Electronic Transaction Data," CIRANO Working Papers 2009s-23, CIRANO.
    9. Timotheos Angelidis & Nikolaos Tessaromatis, 2014. "Global portfolio management under state dependent multiple risk premia," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 0400966, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    10. Matthes, Christian & Wang, Mu-Chun, 2012. "What drives inflation in New Keynesian models?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 338-342.
    11. Turan G. Bali & Robert F. Engle & Yi Tang, 2017. "Dynamic Conditional Beta Is Alive and Well in the Cross Section of Daily Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(11), pages 3760-3779, November.
    12. Juan M. Londono & Mary Tian, 2014. "Bank Interventions and Options-based Systemic Risk: Evidence from the Global and Euro-area Crisis," International Finance Discussion Papers 1117, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Sebastian Rondeau, 2012. "Sources of Fluctuations in Emerging Markets: Structural Estimation with Mixed Frequency Data," 2012 Meeting Papers 1156, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Chen, Liangyuan & Lin, Jianhao & Wang, Xia & Zhu, Zixiang, 2025. "The real effect of China's narrative Central Bank Communication," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 94(PC).
    15. Valenti, Daniele & Bastianin, Andrea & Manera, Matteo, 2023. "A weekly structural VAR model of the US crude oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    16. Azar, Jose, 2009. "Electric Cars and Oil Prices," MPRA Paper 15538, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Pavel Vidal Alejandro & Lya Paola Sierra Su�rez & Johana Sanabria Dominguez & Jaime Andres Collazos Rodr�guez, 2015. "Indicador mensual de actividad econ�mica (IMAE) para el Valle del Cauca," Borradores de Economia 13610, Banco de la Republica.
    18. Hale, Galina & Lopez, Jose A., 2019. "Monitoring banking system connectedness with big data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 203-220.
    19. Eraslan, Sercan & Götz, Thomas, 2021. "An unconventional weekly economic activity index for Germany," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    20. Eraslan, Sercan & Schröder, Maximilian, 2019. "Nowcasting GDP with a large factor model space," Discussion Papers 41/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:65502. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.