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Non Linear Adjustment in the MLR Condition: Evidence from Threshold Cointegration

  • Ghassan, Hassan B.

This paper investigates the long-run equilibrium relationship between the real net exports and the exchange rate in Moroccan economy by the threshold cointegration test. This approach, introduced by Enders and Siklos (2001), provides clair evidence of the cointegration relationship characterized by an asymmetric adjustment. By allowing for this asymmetry, we obtain the results showing the stability of the Marshall-Lerner-Robinson (MLR) condition. In particular, the estimated results indicate the the adjustment process is persistent toward equilibrium above an appropriately threshold parameter, whereas the adjustment process toward equilibrium quickly converges below the estimated threshold. This finding indicates that the deviations from equilibrium resulting from increases in real effective exchange rate (i.e. devaluation) are highly persistent, but the deviations from equilibrium resulting from decreases in real effective exchange rate (i.e. reevaluation) converge quickly toward equilibrium.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 54393.

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Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of Economic Cooperation and Development 3.30(2009): pp. 63-74
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:54393
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  1. Enders, Walter & Granger, C. W. J., 1998. "Unit Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment with an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Staff General Research Papers 1388, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  2. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
  3. Nathan S. Balke & Thomas B. Fomby, 1992. "Threshold cointegration," Research Paper 9209, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    • Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997. "Threshold Cointegration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-45, August.
  4. Boyd, Derick & Caporale, Gugielmo Maria & Smith, Ron, 2001. "Real Exchange Rate Effects on the Balance of Trade: Cointegration and the Marshall-Lerner Condition," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(3), pages 187-200, July.
  5. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  6. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee, 2001. "Nominal and real effective exchange rates of middle eastern countries and their trade performance," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 103-111.
  7. Kamal Upadhyaya & Dharmendra Dhakal, 1997. "Devaluation and the trade balance: estimating the long run effect," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(6), pages 343-345.
  8. Perron, P. & Rodriguez, G., 2000. "Residual Based Tests for Cointegration with GLS Detrended Data," Working Papers 0004e, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
  9. Enders, Walter & Siklos, Pierre L, 2001. "Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 166-76, April.
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