IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/4876.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Razvitost slovenskega trga dolžniškega kapitala in ocenitev krivulje donosnosti

Author

Listed:
  • Andraž, Grum

Abstract

Despite of the importance of term structure estimation for business and monetary purposes, Slovenian term structure has not yet been estimated. Partly the blame goes to underdeveloped bond market, characterized by high portion of foreign currency issues in Slovenian government bond outstanding, the lack of long term instruments and low liquidity on the secondary market. The liquidity improved with parallel OTC-DVP market introduction in September 2005 and consequently the information value of fixed income asset prices for term structure estimation purposes has improved significantly. In this paper we will present theoretical methods of static term structure estimation. The goals are to obtain initial estimates of Slovenian term structure, to identify the most suitable estimation method and to analyze the volatility movements of zero coupon yields and forward interest rates for different maturities in analyzed time period. Among applied models of term structure estimation, namely Nelson-Siegel model, Svensson model, Bsplines model, smoothing B-splines model and Merrill Lynch exponential splines model, Nelson-Siegel model proved to be superior in terms of goodness of fit measured as root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean percentage error (MPE) and hit ratio. The resulted estimates are to the knowledge of the author initial estimates of Slovenian term structure. With OTC-DVP bond market introduction (as parallel bond market) the volatility of spot and forward rates for mid and long remind maturities has fallen. Volatility reduction is important, as 10 year benchmark bond yield is closely observed as one of Maastricht’s criteria which have to be fullfield before joining the EMU.

Suggested Citation

  • Andraž, Grum, 2006. "Razvitost slovenskega trga dolžniškega kapitala in ocenitev krivulje donosnosti," MPRA Paper 4876, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:4876
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4876/1/MPRA_paper_4876.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Litzenberger, Robert H & Rolfo, Jacques, 1984. "An International Study of Tax Effects on Government Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(1), pages 1-22, March.
    2. Jordan, James V, 1984. "Tax Effects in Term Structure Estimation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(2), pages 393-406, June.
    3. Nicola Anderson & John Sleath, 2001. "New estimates of the UK real and nominal yield curves," Bank of England working papers 126, Bank of England.
    4. Tanggaard, Carsten, 1997. "Nonparametric Smoothing of Yield Curves," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 251-267, October.
    5. Vasicek, Oldrich A & Fong, H Gifford, 1982. "Term Structure Modeling Using Exponential Splines," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(2), pages 339-348, May.
    6. Basma Bekdache & Christopher F. Baum, "undated". "The Ex Ante Predictive Accuracy of Alternative Models of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Computing in Economics and Finance 1997 72, Society for Computational Economics.
    7. McCulloch, J Huston, 1971. "Measuring the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(1), pages 19-31, January.
    8. McCulloch, J Huston, 1975. "The Tax-Adjusted Yield Curve," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(3), pages 811-830, June.
    9. Peter Brandner & Albert Jaeger, 1992. "Zinsniveau und Zinsstruktur in Österreich," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 2946, April.
    10. David Bolder & Grahame Johnson & Adam Metzler, 2004. "An Empirical Analysis of the Canadian Term Structure of Zero-Coupon Interest Rates," Staff Working Papers 04-48, Bank of Canada.
    11. Schich, Sebastian T., 1997. "Estimating the German term structure," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1997,04e, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    12. Daniel F. Waggoner, 1997. "Spline methods for extracting interest rate curves from coupon bond prices," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 97-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    13. M S Mohanty, 2002. "Improving liquidity in government bond markets: what can be done?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The development of bond markets in emerging economies, volume 11, pages 49-80, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-489, October.
    15. Ioannides, Michalis, 2003. "A comparison of yield curve estimation techniques using UK data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 1-26, January.
    16. Iwan Meier, 1999. "Estimating The Term Structure of Interest Rates: The Swiss Case," Working Papers 99.06, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. James M. Steeley, 2008. "Testing Term Structure Estimation Methods: Evidence from the UK STRIPS Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(7), pages 1489-1512, October.
    2. Fengler, Matthias R. & Hin, Lin-Yee, 2015. "A simple and general approach to fitting the discount curve under no-arbitrage constraints," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 78-84.
    3. Ioannides, Michalis, 2003. "A comparison of yield curve estimation techniques using UK data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 1-26, January.
    4. Ganchev, Alexander, 2009. "Modeling the yield curve of spot interest rates under the conditions in Bulgaria," MPRA Paper 70048, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Faria, Adriano & Almeida, Caio, 2018. "A hybrid spline-based parametric model for the yield curve," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 72-94.
    6. Kentaro Kikuchi & Kohei Shintani, 2012. "Comparative Analysis of Zero Coupon Yield Curve Estimation Methods Using JGB Price Data," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 30, pages 75-122, November.
    7. Marcello Pericoli, 2014. "Real Term Structure and Inflation Compensation in the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(1), pages 1-42, March.
    8. Nymand-Andersen, Per, 2018. "Yield curve modelling and a conceptual framework for estimating yield curves: evidence from the European Central Bank’s yield curves," Statistics Paper Series 27, European Central Bank.
    9. Vadim Kaushanskiy & Victor Lapshin, 2016. "A nonparametric method for term structure fitting with automatic smoothing," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(58), pages 5654-5666, December.
    10. Gzyl, Henryk & Mayoral, Silvia, 2016. "Determination of zero-coupon and spot rates from treasury data by maximum entropy methods," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 456(C), pages 38-50.
    11. Yallup, Peter J., 2012. "Models of the yield curve and the curvature of the implied forward rate function," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 121-135.
    12. Poletti Laurini, Márcio & Moura, Marcelo, 2010. "Constrained smoothing B-splines for the term structure of interest rates," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 339-350, April.
    13. Koo, Bonsoo & La Vecchia, Davide & Linton, Oliver, 2021. "Estimation of a nonparametric model for bond prices from cross-section and time series information," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(2), pages 562-588.
    14. Brian Barnard, 2019. "Interest Rate Term Structure Decomposition: An Axiomatic," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 6(1), pages 84-96, January.
    15. Rainer Jankowitsch & Michaela Nettekoven, 2008. "Trading strategies based on term structure model residuals," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 281-298.
    16. Damir Filipović & Sander Willems, 2016. "Exact Smooth Term Structure Estimation," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 16-38, Swiss Finance Institute.
    17. Julian Manzano & Jorgen Blomvall, 2004. "Positive forward rates in the maximum smoothness framework," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 221-232.
    18. Emma Berenguer-Carceles & Ricardo Gimeno & Juan M. Nave, 2012. "Estimation of the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Methodology and Applications," Working Papers 12.06, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Financial Economics and Accounting (former Department of Business Administration).
    19. Koo, B. & La Vecchia, D. & Linton, O., 2019. "Nonparametric Recovery of the Yield Curve Evolution from Cross-Section and Time Series Information," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1916, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    20. Varga, Gyorgy, 2009. "Teste de Modelos Estatísticos para a Estrutura a Termo no Brasil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 63(4), December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:4876. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.