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Using Option Theory and Fundamentals to Assessing Default Risk of Listed Firms

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  • Papanastasopoulos, George

Abstract

In this paper, we use option based measures of financial performance that utilize market information in a binary probit regression to examine their informational context and properties as distress indicators and to estimate default probabilities for listed firms. Then, we enrich them with fundamentals that utilize accounting information. The results suggest that by adding accounting information from financial statements to market information from equity prices we can improve both in sample fitting and out of sample predictability of defaults. Therefore, option theory does not generate sufficient statistics of the actual default frequency. Our main conclusion is that while market information can be extremely valuable, it is most useful when coupled with accounting information in assessing default risk of listed firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Papanastasopoulos, George, 2005. "Using Option Theory and Fundamentals to Assessing Default Risk of Listed Firms," MPRA Paper 453, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2006.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:453
    as

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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/453/1/MPRA_paper_453.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alexandros Benos & George Papanastasopoulos, 2005. "Extending the Merton Model: A Hybrid Approach to Assessing Credit Quality," Finance 0505020, EconWPA, revised 18 Nov 2005.
    2. Robert A. Jarrow & Stuart M. Turnbull, 2008. "Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 17, pages 377-409 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    4. Ronan G. Powell, 2004. "Takeover Prediction Models and Portfolio Strategies: A Multinomial Approach," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 8(1-2), pages 35-72, March-Jun.
    5. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    6. repec:bla:joares:v:4:y:1966:i::p:71-111 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Maria Vassalou & Yuhang Xing, 2004. "Default Risk in Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 831-868, April.
    8. Franks, Julian R. & Torous, Walter N., 1994. "A comparison of financial recontracting in distressed exchanges and chapter 11 reorganizations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 349-370, June.
    9. repec:bla:joares:v:6:y:1968:i:2:p:179-192 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Saikat Nandi, 1998. "Valuation models for default-risky securities: An overview," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q 4, pages 22-35.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    option theory; fundamentals; default risk;

    JEL classification:

    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

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