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Opportunities for international portfolio diversification in the balkans’ markets

  • Dimitriou, Dimitrios
  • Kenourgios, Dimitris

This paper examines long and short-run relationships among three emerging Balkan stock markets (Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia), two developed European stock markets (Germany and Greece) and United States (U.S.), during the period 2000 - 2005. We apply Johansen's (1988) cointegration methodology to test the long-run relationships between these markets and Granger's (1969) causality methodology in order to capture short-run cointegration. Our findings are mixed. We provide evidence on long-run relationships between the Bulgarian and Croatian stock markets and the developed markets. On the other hand, there is no any cointegration among the developed markets and the Romanian market. Moreover, there is no cointegrating relationship among the three regional emerging markets, while short-run relationships exist only among the region. These results have crucial implications for investors regarding the benefits of international portfolio diversification.

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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/37479/2/MPRA_paper_37479.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 37479.

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Date of creation: Feb 2012
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Publication status: Published in International Journal of Economics and Research 3i.1(2012): pp. 1-12
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:37479
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  1. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  2. Chan, Kam C & Gup, Benton E & Pan, Ming-Shiun, 1992. "An Empirical Analysis of Stock Prices in Major Asian Markets and the United States," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 27(2), pages 289-307, May.
  3. Hamao, Yasushi & Campbell, John, 1992. "Predictable Stock Returns in the United States and Japan: A Study of Long-Term Capital Market Integration," Scholarly Articles 3207694, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  4. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  5. Meric, Ilhan & Meric, Gulser, 1989. "Potential gains from international portfolio diversification and inter-temporal stability and seasonality in international stock market relationships," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 627-640, September.
  6. Phylaktis, Kate & Ravazzolo, Fabiola, 2005. "Stock market linkages in emerging markets: implications for international portfolio diversification," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 91-106, April.
  7. Arshanapalli, Bala & Doukas, John, 1993. "International stock market linkages: Evidence from the pre- and post-October 1987 period," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 193-208, February.
  8. Angelos Kanas, 1998. "Linkages between the US and European equity markets: further evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 607-614.
  9. Syriopoulos, Theodore, 2006. "Risk and return implications from investing in emerging European stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-299, July.
  10. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
  11. DeFusco, Richard A & Geppert, John M & Tsetsekos, George P, 1996. "Long-Run Diversification Potential in Emerging Stock Markets," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 343-63, May.
  12. Rahman, Hamid & Yung, Kenneth, 1994. "Atlantic and Pacific stock markets--correlation and volatility transmission," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 103-119.
  13. Lau, Sie Ting & McInish, Thomas H., 1993. "Comovements of international equity returns: A comparison of the pre- and post-October 19, 1987, periods," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 1-19.
  14. Ayadi, O. Felix & Dufrene, Uric B. & Chatterjee, Amitava, 1998. "Investment implications of the korean financial market reform," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 83-94.
  15. Voronkova, Svitlana, 2004. "Equity market integration in Central European emerging markets: A cointegration analysis with shifting regimes," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 633-647.
  16. Wheatley, Simon, 1988. "Some tests of international equity integration," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 177-212, September.
  17. Hamao, Yasushi & Masulis, Ronald W & Ng, Victor, 1990. "Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 281-307.
  18. Kasa, Kenneth, 1992. "Common stochastic trends in international stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 95-124, February.
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