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Market structure, counterparty risk, and systemic risk

  • Rosenthal, Dale W.R.

Networks modeling bilaterally-cleared and centrally-cleared derivatives markets are shown to yield economically different price impact, volatility and contagion after an initial bankruptcy. A large bankruptcy in bilateral markets may leave a counterparty unable to expectationally prevent bankruptcy (checkmate) or make counterparties push markets and profit from contagion (hunting). In distress, bilateral markets amplify systemic risk and volatility versus centralized markets and are more subject to crises with real effects: contagion, unemployment, reduced tax revenue, higher transactions costs, lower risk sharing, and reduced allocative efficiency. Pricing distress volatility may suggest when to transition to central clearing. The model suggests three metrics for the well-connected part of a market -- number of counterparties, average risk aversion, and standard deviation of total exposure -- may characterize its fragility.

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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/36786/1/MPRA_paper_36786.pdf
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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/36939/1/MPRA_paper_36939.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 36786.

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Date of creation: 10 Jun 2009
Date of revision: 19 Dec 2011
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:36786
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  1. Heider, F. & Hoerova, M. & Holthausen, C., 2009. "Liquidity Hoarding and Interbank Market Spreads : The Role of Counterparty Risk," Discussion Paper 2009-40 S, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  2. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 2003. "Financial Intermediaries and Markets," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 00-44, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  3. Biais, Bruno & Heider, Florian & Hoerova, Marie, 2012. "Risk-sharing or risk-taking? Counterparty risk, incentives and margins," Working Paper Series 1413, European Central Bank.
  4. repec:ecb:ecbwps:20111413 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Gai, Prasanna & Kapadia, Sujit, 2010. "Contagion in financial networks," Bank of England working papers 383, Bank of England.
  6. Rodrigo Cifuentes & Gianluigi Ferrucci & Hyun Song Shin, 2005. "Liquidity risk and contagion," Bank of England working papers 264, Bank of England.
  7. Nier, Erlend & Yang, Jing & Yorulmazer, Tanju & Alentorn, Amadeo, 2008. "Network models and financial stability," Bank of England working papers 346, Bank of England.
  8. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 1054, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
  10. Gur Huberman & Werner Stanzl, 2004. "Price Manipulation and Quasi-Arbitrage," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1247-1275, 07.
  11. Kris Boudt & Ellen C.S. Paulus & Dale W.R. Rosenthal, 2013. "Funding liquidity, market liquidity and TED spread : A two-regime model," Working Paper Research 244, National Bank of Belgium.
  12. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. "Persistence in Variance, Structural Change, and the GARCH Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 225-34, April.
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