IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/21226.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Stochastic simulation as a validation tool for econometric models

Author

Listed:
  • Calzolari, Giorgio
  • Corsi, Paolo

Abstract

The complete validation of an econometric model is a process which involves a formidable number of activities in the various steps of model building, like economic structure specification, test of hypothesis and parameter estimation, simulation behaviour and decision making. Our attention will be mainly focussed on some aspects related to simulation and decision making; in particular, the purpose of this paper is to analyze some problems of the validation process for which stochastic simulation can be profitably used.

Suggested Citation

  • Calzolari, Giorgio & Corsi, Paolo, 1977. "Stochastic simulation as a validation tool for econometric models," MPRA Paper 21226, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:21226
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/21226/1/MPRA_paper_21226.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Calzolari, Giorgio & Ciriani, Tito A. & Corsi, Paolo, 1976. "Generation and testing of pseudo-random numbers to be used in the stochastic simulation of econometric models," MPRA Paper 24172, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Bianchi, Carlo & Calzolari, Giorgio & Corsi, Paolo, 1978. "A Program for Stochastic Simulation of Econometric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 235-236, January.
    3. Phoebus J. Dhrymes & E. Philip Howrey & Saul H. Hymans & Jan Kmenta & Edward E. Leamer & Richard E. Quandt & James B. Ramsey & Harold T. Shapiro & Victor Zarnowitz, 1972. "Criteria for Evaluation of Econometric Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 1, number 3, pages 291-324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Fromm, Gary & Klein, Lawrence R, 1973. "A Comparison of Eleven Econometric Models of the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(2), pages 385-393, May.
    5. Bianchi, Carlo & Calzolari, Giorgio & Corsi, Paolo, 1976. "Divergences in the results of stochastic and deterministic simulation of an Italian non linear econometric model," MPRA Paper 21287, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fair, Ray C, 1980. "Estimating the Expected Predictive Accuracy of Econometric Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 21(2), pages 355-378, June.
    2. Bianchi, Carlo & Calzolari, Giorgio & Brillet, Jean-Louis, 1987. "Measuring forecast uncertainty : A review with evaluation based on a macro model of the French economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 211-227.
    3. Fair Ray C, 2003. "Bootstrapping Macroeconometric Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(4), pages 1-26, December.
    4. Calzolari, Giorgio, 1987. "La varianza delle previsioni nei modelli econometrici [Forecast variance in econometric models]," MPRA Paper 23866, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Mariano, Roberto S, 1985. "Finite-Sample Properties in Stochastic Predictors in Nonlinear Systems : Some Initial Results," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 266, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    6. Fair, Ray C., 1986. "Evaluating the predictive accuracy of models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1979-1995, Elsevier.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bianchi, Carlo & Calzolari, Giorgio & Corsi, Paolo, 1979. "Some results on the stochastic simulation of a nonlinear model of the Italian economy," MPRA Paper 22684, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Bianchi, Carlo & Calzolari, Giorgio & Corsi, Paolo, 1978. "Stochastic simulation of econometric models: installation procedures and user's instructions," MPRA Paper 24173, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Calzolari, Giorgio, 1979. "Stochastic simulation experiments on Model 5 of Bonn University," MPRA Paper 24456, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Alberta H. Charney & Carol A. Taylor, 1983. "Consistent Region-Subregion Econometric Models: A Comparison of Multiarea Methods," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 8(1), pages 59-74, June.
    5. Bernard, Jean-Thomas & Idoudi, Nadhem & Khalaf, Lynda & Yelou, Clement, 2007. "Finite sample multivariate structural change tests with application to energy demand models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1219-1244, December.
    6. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
    7. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2007. "Macroeconomic Modeling for Monetary Policy Evaluation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 25-46, Fall.
    8. Duncan, Steven Scott, 1986. "Accounting for recent changes in beef and pork marketing margins," ISU General Staff Papers 1986010108000017532, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    9. Christopher L. Gilbert & Duo Qin, 2005. "The First Fifty Years of Modern Econometrics," Working Papers 544, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    10. Warren Dent & John Geweke, 1980. "On Specification in Simultaneous Equation Models," NBER Chapters, in: Evaluation of Econometric Models, pages 169-196, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Peter van Els & Alberto Locarno & Julian Morgan & Jean-Pierre Villetelle, 2001. "Monetary policy transmission in the euro area: what do aggregate and national structural models tell us?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 433, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Bianchi, Carlo & Calzolari, Giorgio, 1978. "La varianza dell'errore di previsione nei modelli econometrici: applicazione ad un modello nonlineare dell'economia italiana [The variance of forecast errors in econometric models: application to a," MPRA Paper 29121, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Giorgio Calzolari, 2015. "Indirect estimation and econometrics exams: how to live a round life," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2015_01, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    14. Christopher L. Gilbert & Duo Qin, 2005. "The First Fifty Years of Modern Econometrics," Working Papers 544, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    15. Bianchi, Carlo & Calzolari, Giorgio & Corsi, Paolo, 1979. "A package for analytic simulation of econometric models," MPRA Paper 24134, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Corrado, Luisa & Holly, Sean, 2003. "Nonlinear Phillips curves, mixing feedback rules and the distribution of inflation and output," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 467-492, December.
    17. Rideout, Vincent C., 1981. "The modeling of socio-economic-resource systems," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 111-126.
    18. Calzolari, Giorgio, 1987. "La varianza delle previsioni nei modelli econometrici [Forecast variance in econometric models]," MPRA Paper 23866, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Robinson, Lindon J., 1981. "A New Development In The Marginal Productivity Theory Of Factor Demand," 1981 Annual Meeting, July 26-29, Clemson, South Carolina 279308, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    20. Adrian W. Throop, 1985. "Current fiscal policy: is it stimulating investment or consumption?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Win, pages 19-44.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Econometric models; nonlinear simultaneous equations; stochastic simulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:21226. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.