The Interplay of Food Security, Climate Change, and the Impact of 15th April 2023 War in Sudan: A Comprehensive Analysis

Sudan faces deep challenges of the interrelation between food security, climate change, and the impact of the 15th April 2023 war in Sudan. This study investigates the complex relationships among these factors using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model over two periods: 1961–2022 and 1961–2024, capturing pre- and post-conflict dynamics. Key variables analyzed include cereal production, population growth, annual mean precipitation, average temperature, and 15th April 2023 war-induced displacement. The results reveal significant long-run equilibrium relationships among these variables, highlighting the severe impacts of climate change and conflict on agricultural productivity and food security. Findings demonstrate that a 1% increase in cereal production land correlates with a 1.18% rise in food security before the war, but this effect diminishes post-conflict due to displacement and land loss. Population growth, while a positive contributor in stable periods, becomes non-significant under conflict conditions. Climatic variables show substantial influence, with altered precipitation patterns and rising temperatures exacerbating food insecurity. The study concludes that food security in Sudan is deeply intertwined with its social, political and environmental context. Policy recommendations include promoting climate-resilient agricultural practices, rebuilding agricultural infrastructure, and adopting integrated strategies to address the combined impacts of climate change and conflict on food security.