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Combining monetary, fiscal and structural approaches to model Albanian inflation

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  • Papavangjeli, Meri

Abstract

Amidst the prevailing global economic uncertainty and rising commodity prices, this article investigates empirically the driving forces of inflation in Albania through combining several approaches, focusing especially on the developments in the food sector in general and cereals in particular, during the period from 2000 to 2022. Considering four measures of inflation such as: cereals, food, non-food, and headline inflation, it analysis the effects of domestic and foreign factors on inflation, using a vector error correction model (VECM), which allows to capture both the short-term and long-term effects. The study also considers the fiscal sector in examining inflation dynamics, which has been neglected so far in the current studies on this topic. The empirical analysis finds that domestic inflation is underpinned by disequilibria in the monetary, cereals and non-food sectors; in the short-run, inflation is driven by structural factors (particularly agricultural output gap and imported inflation), as well as demand-side factors (especially money growth and public sector borrowing).

Suggested Citation

  • Papavangjeli, Meri, 2022. "Combining monetary, fiscal and structural approaches to model Albanian inflation," MPRA Paper 116917, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:116917
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/116917/1/MPRA_paper_116917.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Victor Pinga & Gerald Nelson, 2001. "Money, prices and causality: monetarist versus structuralist explanations using pooled country evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(10), pages 1271-1281.
    2. Argy, Victor, 1970. "Structural Inflation in Developing Countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 73-85, March.
    3. Bill Gibson & Dirk Ernst Van Seventer, 2000. "A Tale of Two Models: Comparing structuralist and neoclassical computable general equilibrium models for South Africa," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 149-171.
    4. Durevall, Dick & Loening, Josef L. & Ayalew Birru, Yohannes, 2013. "Inflation dynamics and food prices in Ethiopia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 89-106.
    5. Durevall, Dick, 1998. "The Dynamics of Chronic Inflation in Brazil, 1968-1985," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 423-432, October.
    6. Meri Papavangjeli, 2019. "Forecasting the Albanian short-term inflation through a Bayesian VAR model," IHEID Working Papers 16-2019, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised 09 Oct 2019.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices

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