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Réflexions sur la crise actuelle de l’économie camerounaise liée au COVID-19
[Thoughts about the costs of the current crisis in the Cameroonian economy linked to COVID-19]

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  • Ngomba Bodi, Francis Ghislain

Abstract

The objective of this reflection is to assess the effects of the current crisis on the Cameroonian economy faced with five shocks : (i) an epidemiological shock, (ii) a supply shock (iii) an internal demand shock, (iv) an oil shock, (v) a foreign demand shock. The joint occurrence of these shocks could cost 6 % of GDP in 2020, with a doubling of the budget deficit and private investment which will not recover to its pre-crisis level before the end of 2021. In order to mitigate the effects In view of this recession, it is important for the government, in order to maintain demand at a certain level, to support companies, particularly industrial ones, so that they can maintain a certain level of employment and withstand the crisis. It will require an increase in public debt, the burden of which can be reduced by a purchase of government securities by the central bank. This is the prerequisite for a major economic rebound in 2021-2022. For the latter to materialize, the phenomenon of credit rationing (amplified in period of crisis) could be mitigated by adopting a dynamic bank’s provisioning method for non performing loans and by the effective application of the countercyclical capital buffer.

Suggested Citation

  • Ngomba Bodi, Francis Ghislain, 2020. "Réflexions sur la crise actuelle de l’économie camerounaise liée au COVID-19 [Thoughts about the costs of the current crisis in the Cameroonian economy linked to COVID-19]," MPRA Paper 116377, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:116377
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    covid-19; DSGE model; pandemic economic effects; cameroon; supply shock; keynesian shock;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents

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