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Relația dintre inflație, rata dobânzii, șomaj și creșterea economică

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  • Vîntu, Denis

Abstract

This paper presents a quarterly estimated structural macro econometric model for the Republic of Moldova, denoted macro econometric data model (MDM). This model has been developed with four uses in mind: the assessment of economic conditions in the Republic of Moldova, macroeconomic forecasting, policy analysis and deepening understanding of the functioning of market economy. Five key features of the model are highlighted. First, it treats the Republic of Moldova as a small and open economy. Second, it is a medium sized model which, while detailed enough for most purposes, is nonetheless sufficient small to be manageable in the context of forecasting and simulation exercises. Third, the model is designed to have a long run equilibrium consistent with classical economic theory, while its short run dynamics are demand driven. Fourth, the current version of the MDM is mostly backward-looking, i.e. expectations are reflected via the inclusion of lagged variables. Finally, the MDM uses a quarterly frequency data, allowing for a richer treatment of the dynamics, and is mostly estimated on the basis of historical data (rather than calibrated). The paper comprises elements of stochastic long run simulations. The relationship between: inflation, interest rate, unemployment and economic growth is significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Vîntu, Denis, 2021. "Relația dintre inflație, rata dobânzii, șomaj și creșterea economică," MPRA Paper 112856, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Sep 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:112856
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Dallas S. Batten & Daniel L. Thornton, 1983. "Polynomial distributed lags and the estimation of the St. Louis equation," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 65(Apr), pages 13-25.
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    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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