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Nota metodológica sobre la proyección de exportaciones de productos agro-industriales. Revisión 2020
[Methodological Note on the Projection of Exports of Agri-industrial Products. Review 2020]

Author

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  • Frank, Luis

Abstract

En el artículo se modela la exportación de 20 productos agro-industriales mediante modelos regARIMA estacionales con una componente de demanda y de efectos calendario. Los resultados mostraron que, al contrario de lo observado en series agregadas, los precios reales no fueron significativos para explicar la exportación de la mitad de los productos, y que el PIB del principal socio comercial para cada caso explicó las expo de 12 de los 20 productos. Las variables asociadas al calendario no fueron en general relevantes, como tampoco lo fue la oscilación del Pacífico Sur El Niño. Al final del artículo se discuten opciones para reformular los modelos propuestos en vista de estos resultados.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank, Luis, 2020. "Nota metodológica sobre la proyección de exportaciones de productos agro-industriales. Revisión 2020 [Methodological Note on the Projection of Exports of Agri-industrial Products. Review 2020]," MPRA Paper 111427, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:111427
    as

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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/111427/1/MPRA_paper_111427.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J. C. G. Boot & W. Feibes & J. H. C. Lisman, 1967. "Further Methods of Derivation of Quarterly Figures from Annual Data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 16(1), pages 65-75, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Frank, Luis, 2022. "Elasticidades de demanda de bienes exportados por Argentina [Demand elasticities of goods exported by Argentina]," MPRA Paper 114220, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Frank, Luis, 2021. "Nota metodológica sobre la proyección de exportaciones de productos agro-industriales. Revisión 2021 [Methodological note on the projection of exports of agri-industrial products. 2021 review]," MPRA Paper 112283, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    elasticidades de demanda; exportaciones de productos agroindustriales; modelo regARIMA;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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