IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/107501.html

COVID-19 Pandemic, International Remittances and Economic Growth in Kerala: A Macroeconomic Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • G, Murugan
  • k, Pushpangadan

Abstract

The paper develops a methodology for impact analysis of Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic based on Solow’s growth theory for a migration-driven subnational economy by a case study of Kerala, India. A log-linear growth equation of output per capita is regressed on capital stock-gross domestic product ratio (CSDR) and real remittances per capita (RRPC) for the period, 1980-2015. The robust regression on regional growth shows that the growth elasticity of CSDR is 0.43 and that of RRPC 0.28 with an explanatory power of 95 %. From growth accounting principle, only 29 % of the remaining variation needs to be accounted by other factors affecting regional growth. The impact of remittances on growth rate of the economy is positive and statistically significant at 1 % level as against the negative and statistically significant relationship observed in majority of cross-country analysis. The gross state domestic product (GSDP) for the year 2020/21 using national accounting framework incorporating unorganised economic activities shows a reduction of 38.85% from the pandemic impact in the region. The corresponding shrinkage of investment share in GSDP is 24. 5 % from its trend value of 0.63 in 2020/21.This alone reduces the growth rate of output per capita by 10.5 %. Similarly, the reduction in trend value of RRPC is 43.1 % and its impact on growth rate of output per capita is a shrinkage of 12.1 %. The impact of COVID19 on the overall growth rate of output per capita in the economy is- 22.6 %, the sum of the separate effects. It is interesting to note that reduction in growth rate is more from international remittances than from the share of investment in GSDP. Therefore, growthrevival strategy for the region requires special component plan compensating for the shortfall in the international remittances.

Suggested Citation

  • G, Murugan & k, Pushpangadan, 2021. "COVID-19 Pandemic, International Remittances and Economic Growth in Kerala: A Macroeconomic Analysis," MPRA Paper 107501, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Apr 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:107501
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/107501/1/MPRA_paper_107501.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    2. K. P. Kannan & K. S. Hari, 2020. "Revisiting Kerala’s Gulf Connection: Half a Century of Emigration, Remittances and Their Macroeconomic Impact, 1972–2020," The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, Springer;The Indian Society of Labour Economics (ISLE), vol. 63(4), pages 941-967, December.
    3. K. Pushpangadan, 2003. "Remittances, consumption and economic growth in Kerala: 1980-2000," Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum Working Papers 343, Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum, India.
    4. Richard Adams, 2011. "Evaluating the Economic Impact of International Remittances On Developing Countries Using Household Surveys: A Literature Review," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(6), pages 809-828.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nikeel Nishkar Kumar & Arvind Patel, 2022. "Income thresholds in the remittances-growth association? a case study of Fiji," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(19), pages 1815-1823, November.
    2. Justin Sunny & Jajati K. Parida & Mohammed Azurudeen, 2020. "Remittances, Investment and New Emigration Trends in Kerala," Review of Development and Change, , vol. 25(1), pages 5-29, June.
    3. Rao, B. Bhaskara, 2010. "Estimates of the steady state growth rates for selected Asian countries with an extended Solow model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 46-53, January.
    4. Prof. Dr. Adem KALCA & Resc. Assist. Atakan DURMAZ, 2012. "Diaspora As The Instrument Of Humane Capital," International Journal of Business and Social Research, LAR Center Press, vol. 2(5), pages 94-104, October.
    5. Burda, Michael C. & Zessner-Spitzenberg, Leopold, 2024. "Greenhouse Gas Mitigation and Price-Driven Growth in a Solow-Swan Economy with an Environmental Limit," IZA Discussion Papers 16771, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. João Juchem Neto & Julio Claeyssen, 2015. "Capital-induced labor migration in a spatial Solow model," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 115(1), pages 25-47, May.
    7. Erich Gundlach, 2003. "Growth Effects of EU Membership: The Case of East Germany," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 30(3), pages 237-270, September.
    8. Hajer Habib, 2023. "Remittances and Labor Supply: Evidence from Tunisia," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 14(2), pages 1870-1899, June.
    9. Boucekkine, Raouf & del Rio, Fernando & Licandro, Omar, 2005. "Obsolescence and modernization in the growth process," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 153-171, June.
    10. Ottaviano, Gianmarco & Peri, Giovanni, 2008. "Immigration and National Wages: Clarifying the Theory and the Empirics," CEPR Discussion Papers 6916, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Das Gupta, Monica & Bongaarts, John & Cleland, John, 2011. "Population, poverty, and sustainable development : a review of the evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5719, The World Bank.
    12. Kawalec Paweł, 2020. "The dynamics of theories of economic growth: An impact of Unified Growth Theory," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 6(2), pages 19-44, June.
    13. Jan Fagerberg & Bengt-Åke Lundvall & Martin Srholec, 2018. "Global Value Chains, National Innovation Systems and Economic Development," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 30(3), pages 533-556, July.
    14. Kutuk, Yasin, 2022. "Inequality convergence: A world-systems theory approach," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 150-165.
    15. Kar, Sabyasachi & Pritchett, Lant & Raihan, Selim & Sen, Kunal, 2013. "Looking for a break: Identifying transitions in growth regimes," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 151-166.
    16. Joan R Rosés & Nikolaus Wolf, 2021. "Regional growth and inequality in the long-run: Europe, 1900–2015," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 37(1), pages 17-48.
    17. Hala Abu-Kalla & Ruslana Rachel Palatnik & Ofira Ayalon & Mordechai Shechter, 2020. "Hoard or Exploit? Intergenerational Allocation of Exhaustible Natural Resources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-20, December.
    18. Kieran McQuinn & Karl Whelan, 2007. "Solow ( 1956 ) as a model of cross-country growth dynamics," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 23(1), pages 45-62, Spring.
    19. van de Klundert, T.C.M.J. & Smulders, J.A., 1991. "Reconstructing growth theory : A survey," Other publications TiSEM 19355c51-17eb-4d5d-aa66-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    20. Mishra, Vinod & Smyth, Russell, 2014. "Convergence in energy consumption per capita among ASEAN countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 180-185.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • E69 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Other

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:107501. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.