A Theory of Subjective Learning, Second Version
We study an individual who faces a dynamic decision problem in which the process of information arrival is unobserved by the analyst. We elicit subjective information directly from choice behavior by deriving two utility representations of preferences over menus of acts. The most general representation identifies a unique probability distribution over the set of posteriors that the decision maker might face at the time of choosing from the menu. We use this representation to characterize a notion of ”more preference for flexibility” via a subjective analogue of Blackwell’s (1951, 1953) comparisons of experiments. A more specialized representation uniquely identifies information as a partition of the state space. This result allows us to compare individuals who expect to learn differently, even if they do not agree on their prior beliefs. On the extended domain of dated-menus, we show how to accommodate an individual who expects to learn gradually over time by means of a subjective filtration.
|Date of creation:||31 Aug 2012|
|Date of revision:||18 Mar 2013|
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Web page: http://economics.sas.upenn.edu/pier
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- Hyogo, Kazuya, 2007. "A subjective model of experimentation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 316-330, March.
- Eddie eckel & Barton L Lipman & Aldo Rustichini & Todd Sarver, 2005. "Representing Preferences with a Unique Subjective State Space: Corrigendum," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-042, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Kreps, David M, 1979. "A Representation Theorem for "Preference for Flexibility"," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(3), pages 565-577, May.
- Dekel, Eddie & Lipman, Barton L & Rustichini, Aldo, 2001.
"Representing Preferences with a Unique Subjective State Space,"
Econometric Society, vol. 69(4), pages 891-934, July.
- Eddie Dekel, 1997. "A Unique Subjective State Space for Unforeseen Contingencies," Discussion Papers 1202, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Takeoka, Norio, 2007. "Subjective probability over a subjective decision tree," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 536-571, September.
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