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Expectational Bottlenecks and the Emerging of New Organizational Forms

  • Giorgio Rampa

    ()

  • Francesco Bogliacino

    (Universiteit van Amsterdam - AIAS)

In this article we discuss the dynamics of organizational change when agents have heterogeneous initial conjectures and do learn. In this framework, conjectural equilibrium is defined as a steady state of the learning process, and all the adjustment occurs in disequilibrium. We discuss the properties of the system under different “rationality” assumptions, and using well-known learning algorithms. We prove analytically that multiplicity of equilibria, and failure of good organizational routines, cannot be ruled out: better, they are fairly probable. Stability is a crucial matter: it is shown to depend on initial conjectures. Finally, learning does not necessarily select the best.

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File URL: http://economia.unipv.it/docs/dipeco/quad/ps/RePEc/pav/wpaper/q159.pdf
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Paper provided by University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods in its series Quaderni di Dipartimento with number 159.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pav:wpaper:159
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  1. Giovanni Dosi & Marco Grazzi, 2010. "On the nature of technologies: knowledge, procedures, artifacts and production inputs," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(1), pages 173-184, January.
  2. Giovanni Dosi & Marco Grazzi, 2006. "Technologies as problem-solving procedures and technologies as input--output relations: some perspectives on the theory of production," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(1), pages 173-202, February.
  3. Sidney G. Winter, 2004. "Toward a Neo-Schumpeterian Theory of the Firm," LEM Papers Series 2004/20, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  4. Dosi, Giovanni, 1988. "Sources, Procedures, and Microeconomic Effects of Innovation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 1120-71, September.
  5. Aghion, Philippe & Bolton, Patrick, 1992. "An Incomplete Contracts Approach to Financial Contracting," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(3), pages 473-94, July.
  6. Francesco Bogliacino & Giorgio Rampa, 2010. "Monopolistic competition and new products: a conjectural equilibrium approach," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 55-76, June.
  7. Arthur, W Brian, 1989. "Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Events," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(394), pages 116-31, March.
  8. Bengt Holmstrom, 1982. "Moral Hazard in Teams," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 13(2), pages 324-340, Autumn.
  9. Rafael La porta & Florencio Lopez-De-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert Vishny, 2002. "Investor Protection and Corporate Valuation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1147-1170, 06.
  10. Bengt Holmstrom & Jean Tirole, 1994. "Financial Intermediation, Loanable Funds and the Real Sector," Working papers 95-1, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  11. Francesco Bogliacino & Giorgio Rampa, 2012. "Quality risk aversion, conjectures, and new product diffusion," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 1081-1115, November.
  12. Stefano Demichelis & Klaus Ritzberger, 2011. "A general equilibrium analysis of corporate control and the stock market," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 221-254, February.
  13. Cimoli, Mario & Dosi, Giovanni & Stiglitz, Joseph E. (ed.), 2009. "Industrial Policy and Development: The Political Economy of Capabilities Accumulation," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199235278.
  14. Giovanni Dosi & Daniel A. Levinthal & Luigi Marengo, 2003. "Bridging contested terrain: linking incentive-based and learning perspectives on organizational evolution," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(2), pages 413-436, April.
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