Consumer resistance diminishes environmental gains of dietary change

The environmental gains of dietary change are often assessed in relation to average national diets, overlooking differences in individual consumption habits and preferences. As a result, we ignore the roles and impacts of different consumer groups in a sustainable dietary transition. This study combines micro data on food intake and consumer behaviour to elicit the likely environmental gains of dietary shifts. We focus on the Netherlands owing to the county’s ambition to halve its dietary footprint by 2050. Linking food recall survey data from a cross-section of the population (n=4,313), life cycle inventory analysis for 220 food products, and behavioural survey data (n=1,233), we estimate the dietary footprints of consumer groups across water, land, biodiversity and greenhouse gas footprints. We find that meat and dairy significantly contribute to the dietary greenhouse gas (GHG) footprint (59%), land footprint (55%), and biodiversity footprint (57%) of all consumer groups, and that male consumers impose a 30-32% greater burden than women across these impact areas. Our scenario analysis reveals that simply replacing cow milk with soy milk could reduce the GHG, land and biodiversity footprints of food consumption by ±8% if widely adopted by the Dutch adult population. These impacts could be further reduced by ±20% from a full adoption of a sustainable diet, as recommended by the EAT-Lancet Commission, but would significantly increase the blue water footprint of Dutch food consumption. While the EAT-Lancet recommended diet is preferred in terms of impacts and nutrition, it would necessitate a complete overhaul of individual dietary habits, whereas shifting to soy milk is a simple single product substitution and a more accessible choice for consumers. However, when incorporating gender- and age-specific willingness for meat and dairy consumption reduction, the environmental gains resulting from partial adoption of the EAT diet and No-Milk diet diminish to a mere ±4.5% and ±0.8%, respectively. Consequently, consumer motivation alone is insufficient to realise the significant environmental gains often promised by dietary change. Our findings highlight that specific and targeted policies are needed to overcome the barriers that consumers face to adopting a more sustainable diet.