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Modelling the drivers of a widespread shift to sustainable diets

Author

Listed:
  • Sibel Eker

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Gerhard Reese

    (University of Koblenz-Landau)

  • Michael Obersteiner

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

Abstract

A reduction in global meat consumption can significantly reduce the adverse environmental effects of the food system, but it would require widespread dietary changes. Such shifts to sustainable diets depend on several behavioural factors that have not yet been addressed in relation to the food system. This study links a behavioural diet shift model to an integrated assessment model to identify the main drivers of global diet change and its implications for the food system. The results show that the social norm effect (for instance, the extent of vegetarianism in the population that accelerates a further switch to a vegetarian diet) and self-efficacy are the main drivers of widespread dietary changes. These findings stress the importance of value-driven actions motivated either by intrinsic identity or by group dynamics over health and climate risk perceptions in steering diet change dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Sibel Eker & Gerhard Reese & Michael Obersteiner, 2019. "Modelling the drivers of a widespread shift to sustainable diets," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 2(8), pages 725-735, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natsus:v:2:y:2019:i:8:d:10.1038_s41893-019-0331-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41893-019-0331-1
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kristin Jürkenbeck & Achim Spiller, 2020. "Consumers’ Evaluation of Stockfree-Organic Agriculture—A Segmentation Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-19, May.
    2. repec:osf:socarx:m98kr_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Florian Kapmeier, 2020. "Reflections on developing a simulation model on sustainable and healthy diets for decision makers: Comment on the paper by Kopainsky," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(6), pages 928-935, November.
    4. Meiqian Chen & Lei Gao & Zhaoxia Guo & Yucheng Dong & Enayat A. Moallemi & Yinfeng Xu & Ke Li & Wenhao Lin & Jing Yang & Weijun Xu & Matteo Pedercini & Brett A. Bryan, 2024. "A cost-effective climate mitigation pathway for China with co-benefits for sustainability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    5. Bonnet, Céline & Bouamra-Mechemache, Zohra & Réquillart, Vincent & Treich, Nicolas, 2020. "Viewpoint: Regulating meat consumption to improve health, the environment and animal welfare," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    6. Sibel Eker & Charlie Wilson & Niklas Hohne & Mark S. McCaffrey & Irene Monasterolo & Leila Niamir & Caroline Zimm, 2023. "A dynamic systems approach to harness the potential of social tipping," Papers 2309.14964, arXiv.org.
    7. Wenjie Ruan & Zhaoxia Guo & Jing Yang & Lei Gao & Yucheng Dong & Qi Liu, 2024. "Assessing the progress toward achieving energy‐ and climate‐related sustainable development goals under four global energy transition outlooks," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(4), pages 3695-3707, August.
    8. Ke Li & Lei Gao & Zhaoxia Guo & Yucheng Dong & Enayat A. Moallemi & Gang Kou & Meiqian Chen & Wenhao Lin & Qi Liu & Michael Obersteiner & Matteo Pedercini & Brett A. Bryan, 2024. "Safeguarding China’s long-term sustainability against systemic disruptors," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    9. Franco Donati & Arnold Tukker, 2022. "Environmental Pressures and Value Added Related to Imports and Exports of the Dutch Agricultural Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-12, May.
    10. Essakkat, Kaouter & Mattas, Konstandinos & Unay-Gailhard, Ilkay & Baourakis, George, 2021. "Youth’s potential of adopting the Mediterranean diet lifestyle in response to climate change: Empirical study in Crete, Greece," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 20(5), pages 85-95.
    11. Jing Yang & Lei Gao & Qi Liu & Zhaoxia Guo, 2024. "Assessing environmental impacts of response strategies for sustainable food system transformation," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 2435-2453, June.
    12. Elliot, Thomas & Levasseur, Annie, 2022. "System dynamics life cycle-based carbon model for consumption changes in urban metabolism," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 473(C).
    13. Giacomo Falchetta & Nicolò Golinucci & Matteo Vincenzo Rocco, 2021. "Environmental and Energy Implications of Meat Consumption Pathways in Sub-Saharan Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-22, June.
    14. Kreft, Cordelia & Huber, Robert & Wuepper, David & Finger, Robert, 2021. "The role of non-cognitive skills in farmers' adoption of climate change mitigation measures," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    15. Birgit Kopainsky & Anita Frehner & Adrian Müller, 2020. "Sustainable and healthy diets: Synergies and trade‐offs in Switzerland," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(6), pages 908-927, November.
    16. Cai, Hongyi & Biesbroek, Sander & Chang, Zhiyao & Wen, Xin & Fan, Shenggen & Veer, Pieter van 't & Talsma, Elise F., 2024. "How do regional and demographic differences in diets affect the health and environmental impact in China?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    17. Payró, Clara & Taherzadeh, Oliver & van Oorschot, Mark & Koch, Julia & Koch, Julia & Marselis, Suzanne, 2023. "Consumer resistance diminishes environmental gains of dietary change," SocArXiv m98kr, Center for Open Science.
    18. Rachel Mazac & Hanna L. Tuomisto, 2020. "The Post-Anthropocene Diet: Navigating Future Diets for Sustainable Food Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-15, March.
    19. Hirsch, Cornelius & Krisztin, Tamás & See, Linda, 2020. "Water Resources as Determinants for Foreign Direct Investments in Land - A Gravity Analysis of Foreign Land Acquisitions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    20. Xiaozhi Xiang & Li Peng & Yaxian Zhang, 2023. "Towards more sustainable diets: Insights from food production responses to diet transitions in China," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 1951-1964, June.

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