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COVID-19 Sex-Age Mortality Modeling - A Use Case of Risk-Based Vaccine Prioritization

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  • Shapiro, Vladimir

Abstract

This research builds upon the previous publications claiming that the male sex population and both sex individuals of advanced age are more susceptible to COVID-19’s risks. Relations between sex and age gradients are explored analytically based upon the proposed log-polynomial regression model of COVID-19 mortality. This model enables predicting mortality risk at any arbitrary age, as well as the derivation of several useful secondary metrics: • Sex differential: a ratio of male-to-female death risks for a given age group. • Age parity: age at which both sexes have an equal vulnerability. • Age lag: the number of years to subtract from a male’s age to match a female’s death risk. • Male equal risk age: male’s age at which male’s odds of dying from COVID-19 will equate female’s given the cutoff age. These metrics allow solving such practical problems as, e.g., prioritizing vaccine based on COVID-19 mortality risk associated with sex and age. Modeling techniques, refined in the paper, are by no means unique to COVID-19 and would apply to analyses of other diseases.

Suggested Citation

  • Shapiro, Vladimir, 2021. "COVID-19 Sex-Age Mortality Modeling - A Use Case of Risk-Based Vaccine Prioritization," SocArXiv 5c8bd, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:5c8bd
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/5c8bd
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Leonid Gavrilov & Natalia Gavrilova, 2011. "Mortality Measurement at Advanced Ages," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 432-447.
    2. Demombynes,Gabriel, 2020. "COVID-19 Age-Mortality Curves Are Flatter in Developing Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9313, The World Bank.
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