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Measuring the Economic Impact of the 2017 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Outbreaks in the Philippines Using a CGE Model

Author

Listed:
  • Lary Nel B. Abao

    (Department of Agriculture-National Livestock Program, Quezon City, Philippines)

  • Deborah Kim Sy

  • Nobuhiro Hosoe

    (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan)

  • Yuko Akune

    (Nihon University - College of Bioresource Science, Kanagawa, Japan)

Abstract

We study the impact and drivers of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks in the Philippines in 2017, using a static computable general equilibrium model. Observed data that indicate the market impact of the HPAI are partial; profit and welfare impacts have not been quantified yet. We investigate two major drivers of productivity declines by culling and death of birds and supply disruptions in the poultry sector and consumer avoidance behavior in meat consumption behind the observed market price drop of 7%. We estimate that possible combinations of productivity declines and consumer avoidance were 1–10% and 60–90% and that the HPAI inflicted a welfare loss of 25–56 billion PHP (500 million–1.12 billion USD) and a profit loss of 15–23 billion PHP (295–467 million USD).

Suggested Citation

  • Lary Nel B. Abao & Deborah Kim Sy & Nobuhiro Hosoe & Yuko Akune, 2025. "Measuring the Economic Impact of the 2017 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Outbreaks in the Philippines Using a CGE Model," GRIPS Discussion Papers 25-04, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:ngi:dpaper:25-04
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    4. Beach, Robert H. & Zhen, Chen, 2008. "Consumer Purchasing Behavior in Response to Media Coverage of Avian Influenza," 2008 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2008, Dallas, Texas 6750, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    5. Tanaka, Tetsuji & Hosoe, Nobuhiro, 2011. "Does agricultural trade liberalization increase risks of supply-side uncertainty?: Effects of productivity shocks and export restrictions on welfare and food supply in Japan," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 368-377, June.
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