IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nfi/nfipbs/2005-pb-02.html

U.S. Housing Price Boom–Busts In Historical Perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Michael D. Bordo

Abstract

There is present concern that housing prices in the U.S. are undergoing an unsustainable boom, which some refer to as a bubble, that will end in a bust with dire consequences for the real economy. This paper considers whether this dire scenario is likely to happen. My reading of the literature on the housing boom and study of U.S. economic history makes me skeptical. The U.S. has had a long history of housing booms which were regional or local. It never experienced a national boom-bust and this episode will likely repeat the experience of the past.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael D. Bordo, 2005. "U.S. Housing Price Boom–Busts In Historical Perspective," NFI Policy Briefs 2005-PB-02, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:nfi:nfipbs:2005-pb-02
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.indstate.edu/business/sites/business.indstate.edu/files/Docs/2005-PB-02_Bordo.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Should Central Banks Respond to Movements in Asset Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 253-257, May.
    2. Thomas F Helbling, 2005. "Housing price bubbles - a tale based on housing price booms and busts," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Real estate indicators and financial stability, volume 21, pages 30-41, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Cecchetti, Stephen G., 2006. "The Brave new World of Central Banking: Polcy Challenges posed by Asset Price Booms and Busts," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 196, pages 107-119, April.
    4. Jonathan McCarthy & Richard Peach, 2004. "Are home prices the next \\"bubble\\"?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 1-17.
    5. Michael D. Bordo & Olivier Jeanne, 2002. "Boom-Busts in Asset Prices, Economic Instability, and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8966, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 299-362.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michal Hlavacek & Lubos Komarek, 2009. "Housing Price Bubbles and their Determinants in the Czech Republic and its Regions," Working Papers 2009/12, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    2. Kai, Guo & Conlon, John R., 2007. "Why Bubble-Bursting Is Unpredictable: Welfare Effects Of Anti-Bubble Policy When Central Banks Make Mistakes," MPRA Paper 5927, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Ansgar Belke & Marcel Wiedmann, 2005. "Boom or Bubble in the US Real Estate Market?," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 260/2005, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    4. Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Răzvan, 2013. "Decizii strategice ale politicii monetare [Strategic decisions of the Monetary Policy]," MPRA Paper 51242, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Nov 2013.
    5. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Housing and the monetary transmission mechanism," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 359-413.
    6. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "\"Housing and the monetary transmission mechanism,\" Finance and Economics Discussion Series Working Paper: a speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, September 1, 2007," Speech 312, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Vijay Kumar Vishwakarma & Ohannes George Paskelian, 2012. "Bubble In The Indian Real Estate Markets: Identification Using Regime-Switching Methodology," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 6(3), pages 27-40.
    8. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2015. "U.S. Disposable Personal Income and a Housing Price Index: A Fractional Integration Analysis," Journal of Housing Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 73-86, January.
    9. Erlend Nier, 2009. "Financial Stability Frameworks and the Role of Central Banks: Lessons From the Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2009/070, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Joe Peek & Eric Rosengren & Geoffrey M. B. Tootell, 2016. "Does Fed policy reveal a ternary mandate?," Working Papers 16-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    11. Clara Martínez Toledano, 2020. "House Price Cycles, Wealth Inequality and Portfolio Reshuffling," Working Papers hal-02876979, HAL.
    12. Holly, Sean & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Yamagata, Takashi, 2010. "A spatio-temporal model of house prices in the USA," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 160-173, September.
    13. Dominique Pepin, 2010. "La BCE réagit-elle au prix des actifs financiers ?," Working Papers hal-00963626, HAL.
    14. Kontonikas, Alexandros & Ioannidis, Christos, 2005. "Should monetary policy respond to asset price misalignments?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 1105-1121, December.
    15. Alexandros Kontonikas & Alberto Montagnoli, 2006. "Optimal Monetary Policy And Asset Price Misalignments," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 53(5), pages 636-654, November.
    16. Charles Bean, 2010. "Joseph Schumpeter Lecture The Great Moderation, The Great Panic, and The Great Contraction," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(2-3), pages 289-325, 04-05.
    17. Konstantin Kholodilin, 2015. "Speculative Bubbles in Urban Housing Markets in Germany," ERSA conference papers ersa15p67, European Regional Science Association.
    18. Garner, Thesia I. & Verbrugge, Randal, 2009. "Reconciling user costs and rental equivalence: Evidence from the US consumer expenditure survey," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 172-192, September.
    19. Farhi, Emmanuel & Tirole, Jean, 2008. "Competing Liquidities: Corporate Securities Real Bonds and Bubbles," IDEI Working Papers 506, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    20. Thierry Grunspan, 2005. "The Fed and the Question of Financial Stability: An Empirical Investigation," Working papers 134, Banque de France.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nfi:nfipbs:2005-pb-02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ray Thomas (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nfinsus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.