Analysts' Conflict of Interest and Biases in Earnings Forecasts
Analysts' earnings forecasts are influenced by their desire to win investment banking clients. We hypothesize that the equity bull market of the 1990s, along with the boom in investment banking business, exacerbated analysts' conflict of interest and their incentives to adjust strategically forecasts to avoid earnings disappointments. We document shifts in the distribution of earnings surprises, the market's response to surprises and forecast revisions, and in the predictability of non-negative surprises. Further confirmation is based on subsamples where conflicts of interest are more pronounced, including growth stocks and stocks with consecutive non-negative surprises; however shifts are less notable in international markets.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Michaely, Roni & Womack, Kent L, 1999. "Conflict of Interest and the Credibility of Underwriter Analyst Recommendations," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 653-86.
- Degeorge, François & Patel, U & Zeckhauser, Richard, 1998.
"Earnings Management to Exceed Thresholds,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1790, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Daniel Kahneman & Dan Lovallo, 1993. "Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(1), pages 17-31, January.
- Mola, Simona & Loughran, Tim, 2004. "Discounting and Clustering in Seasoned Equity Offering Prices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(01), pages 1-23, March.
- Jay Ritter & Ivo Welch, 2002.
"A Review of IPO Activity, Pricing and Allocations,"
Yale School of Management Working Papers
ysm258, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Apr 2002.
- Jay R. Ritter & Ivo Welch, 2002. "A Review of IPO Activity, Pricing, and Allocations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1795-1828, 08.
- Jay Ritter & Ivo Welch, 2002. "A Review of IPO Activity, Pricing, and Allocations," NBER Working Papers 8805, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik, 2003. "Analyzing the Analysts: Career Concerns and Biased Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 313-351, 02.
- La Porta, Rafael, et al, 1997.
" Good News for Value Stocks: Further Evidence on Market Efficiency,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 859-74, June.
- Rafael La Porta & Josef Lakonishok & Andrei Shleifer & Robert Vishny, 1995. "Good News for Value Stocks: Further Evidence on Market Efficiency," NBER Working Papers 5311, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Busse, Jeffrey A. & Clifton Green, T., 2002. "Market efficiency in real time," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 415-437, September.
- Bartov, Eli & Givoly, Dan & Hayn, Carla, 2002. "The rewards to meeting or beating earnings expectations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 173-204, June.
- Fried, Dov & Givoly, Dan, 1982. "Financial analysts' forecasts of earnings : A better surrogate for market expectations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 85-107, October.
- Krigman, Laurie & Shaw, Wayne H. & Womack, Kent L., 2001. "Why do firms switch underwriters?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2-3), pages 245-284, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9544. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.