Executive Compensation and Analyst Guidance: The Link between CEO Pay and Expectations Management
During the last decade, a surprisingly high percentage of U.S. companies has fulfilled or beaten analysts’ earnings per share forecasts. One of the most frequently cited reasons for this growing tendency is a change in the nature of U.S. executive compensation structure. As stock options have become an increasingly important part of executive compensation, the preservation or enhancement of short term stock value around the earnings announcement has become a priority for managers. Besides earnings management, a widespread way to meet analyst expectations is to inject pessimism into their forecasts by providing analysts with negative clues, or so-called downward guidance. This paper is the first to investigate the relationship between the practice of analyst guidance and executive compensation packages. We document a strong link between expectations management and the relevant options component of CEO compensation, bonus plan payments, and the value of the firm's shares owned by its managing CEO. In a second set of tests, we show that firms that meet or beat analyst forecasts at the earnings announcement generate positive abnormal returns, which are significantly lower for firms suspected of managing expectations.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 40 bd. du Pont d'Arve, Case postale 3, CH - 1211 Geneva 4|
Phone: 41 22 / 312 09 61
Fax: 41 22 / 312 10 26
Web page: http://www.swissfinanceinstitute.ch
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert C. Merton, 1973.
"Theory of Rational Option Pricing,"
Bell Journal of Economics,
The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(1), pages 141-183, Spring.
- Eli Ofek & David Yermack, 2000. "Taking Stock: Equity-Based Compensation and the Evolution of Managerial Ownership," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1367-1384, 06.
- Bartov, Eli & Givoly, Dan & Hayn, Carla, 2002. "The rewards to meeting or beating earnings expectations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 173-204, June.
- Lin, Hsiou-wei & McNichols, Maureen F., 1998. "Underwriting relationships, analysts' earnings forecasts and investment recommendations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 101-127, February.
- White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
- Degeorge, François & Patel, U & Zeckhauser, Richard, 1998.
"Earnings Management to Exceed Thresholds,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1790, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Harrison Hong & Terence Lim & Jeremy C. Stein, 2000.
"Bad News Travels Slowly: Size, Analyst Coverage, and the Profitability of Momentum Strategies,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 265-295, 02.
- Harrison Hong & Terence Lim & Jeremy C. Stein, 1998. "Bad News Travels Slowly: Size, Analyst Coverage and the Profitability of Momentum Strategies," NBER Working Papers 6553, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Core, John E. & Guay, Wayne R., 2001. "Stock option plans for non-executive employees," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 253-287, August.
- Bowen, Robert M. & DuCharme, Larry & Shores, D., 1995. "Stakeholders' implicit claims and accounting method choice," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 255-295, December.
- Louis K. C. Chan & Jason Karceski & Josef Lakonishok, 2003. "Analysts' Conflict of Interest and Biases in Earnings Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 9544, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Heinkel, Robert & Kraus, Alan, 1988. "Measuring Event Impacts in Thinly Traded Stocks," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(01), pages 71-88, March.
- Edith S. Hotchkiss & Deon Strickland, 2003. "Does Shareholder Composition Matter? Evidence from the Market Reaction to Corporate Earnings Announcements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1469-1498, 08.
- Yermack, David, 1997.
" Good Timing: CEO Stock Option Awards and Company News Announcements,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 449-76, June.
- David Yermack, 1996. "Good Timing: CEO Stock Option Awards and Company News Announcements," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 96-41, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
- Michaely, Roni & Womack, Kent L, 1999. "Conflict of Interest and the Credibility of Underwriter Analyst Recommendations," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 653-86.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
- Yermack, David, 1995. "Do corporations award CEO stock options effectively?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 237-269.
- Terence Lim, 2001. "Rationality and Analysts' Forecast Bias," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 369-385, 02.
- Aboody, David & Kasznik, Ron, 2000. "CEO stock option awards and the timing of corporate voluntary disclosures," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 73-100, February.
- Ron Kasznik, 2002. "Does Meeting Earnings Expectations Matter? Evidence from Analyst Forecast Revisions and Share Prices," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 727-759, 06.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fam:rpseri:rp102. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marilyn Barja)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.