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Dynamic Equilibrium and Volatility in Financial Asset Markets

  • Yacine Ait-Sahalia

This paper develops and estimates a continuous-time model of a financial market where investors' trading strategies and the specialist's rule of price adjustments are the best response to each other. We examine how far modeling market microstructure in a purely rational framework can go in explaining alleged asset pricing `anomalies.' The model produces some major findings of the empirical literature: excess volatility of the market price compared to the asset's fundamental value, serially correlated volatility, contemporaneous volume-volatility correlation, and excess kurtosis of price changes. We implement a nonlinear filter to estimate the unobservable fundamental value, and avoid the discretization bias by computing the exact conditional moments of the price and volume processes over time intervals of any length.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5479.

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Date of creation: Mar 1996
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 84 (1998): 93-127.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5479
Note: AP
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  18. Lawrence R. Glosten & Paul R. Milgrom, 1983. "Bid, Ask and Transaction Prices in a Specialist Market with Heterogeneously Informed Traders," Discussion Papers 570, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  19. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November.
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  24. LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-74, May.
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  26. Karpoff, Jonathan M., 1987. "The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(01), pages 109-126, March.
  27. Christie, William G & Schultz, Paul H, 1994. " Why Do NASDAQ Market Makers Avoid Odd-Eighth Quotes?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1813-40, December.
  28. Gennotte, Gerard, 1986. " Optimal Portfolio Choice under Incomplete Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 733-46, July.
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  30. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
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