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The Impact of the Global COVID-19 Vaccination Campaign on All-Cause Mortality

Author

Listed:
  • Virat Agrawal
  • Neeraj Sood
  • Christopher M. Whaley

Abstract

The global COVID-19 vaccination campaign is the largest public health campaign in history, with over 2 billion people fully vaccinated within the first 8 months. Nevertheless, the impact of this campaign on all-cause mortality is not well understood. Leveraging the staggered rollout of vaccines, we find that the vaccination campaign across 141 countries averted 2.4 million excess deaths, valued at $6.5 trillion. We also find that an equitable counterfactual distribution of vaccines, with vaccination in each country proportional to its population, would have saved roughly 670,000 more lives. However, this distribution approach would have reduced the total value of averted deaths by $1.8 trillion due to redistribution of vaccines from high-income to low-income countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Virat Agrawal & Neeraj Sood & Christopher M. Whaley, 2023. "The Impact of the Global COVID-19 Vaccination Campaign on All-Cause Mortality," NBER Working Papers 31812, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31812
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Engy Ziedan & Kosali I. Simon & Coady Wing, 2020. "Effects of State COVID-19 Closure Policy on NON-COVID-19 Health Care Utilization," NBER Working Papers 27621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Nadia J. Sweis, 2022. "Revisiting the value of a statistical life: an international approach during COVID-19," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(3), pages 259-272, September.
    3. Virat Agrawal & Neeraj Sood & Christopher M. Whaley, 2022. "The Ex-Ante Moral Hazard Effects of COVID-19 Vaccines," NBER Working Papers 30602, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Sun, Liyang & Abraham, Sarah, 2021. "Estimating dynamic treatment effects in event studies with heterogeneous treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 175-199.
    5. Virat Agrawal & Jonathan H. Cantor & Neeraj Sood & Christopher M. Whaley, 2021. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution on Mental Health Outcomes," NBER Working Papers 29593, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Girma, Sourafel & Paton, David, 2024. "Using double-debiased machine learning to estimate the impact of Covid-19 vaccination on mortality and staff absences in elderly care homes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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