IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/31812.html

The Impact of the Global COVID-19 Vaccination Campaign on All-Cause Mortality

Author

Listed:
  • Virat Agrawal
  • Neeraj Sood
  • Christopher M. Whaley

Abstract

The global COVID-19 vaccination campaign is the largest public health campaign in history, with over 2 billion people fully vaccinated within the first 8 months. Nevertheless, the impact of this campaign on all-cause mortality is not well understood. Leveraging the staggered rollout of vaccines, we find that the vaccination campaign across 141 countries averted 2.4 million excess deaths, valued at $6.5 trillion. We also find that an equitable counterfactual distribution of vaccines, with vaccination in each country proportional to its population, would have saved roughly 670,000 more lives. However, this distribution approach would have reduced the total value of averted deaths by $1.8 trillion due to redistribution of vaccines from high-income to low-income countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Virat Agrawal & Neeraj Sood & Christopher M. Whaley, 2023. "The Impact of the Global COVID-19 Vaccination Campaign on All-Cause Mortality," NBER Working Papers 31812, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31812
    Note: EH
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w31812.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Virat Agrawal & Jonathan H. Cantor & Neeraj Sood & Christopher M. Whaley, 2021. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution on Mental Health Outcomes," NBER Working Papers 29593, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Engy Ziedan & Kosali I. Simon & Coady Wing, 2020. "Effects of State COVID-19 Closure Policy on NON-COVID-19 Health Care Utilization," NBER Working Papers 27621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Nadia J. Sweis, 2022. "Revisiting the value of a statistical life: an international approach during COVID-19," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(3), pages 259-272, September.
    4. Virat Agrawal & Neeraj Sood & Christopher M. Whaley, 2022. "The Ex-Ante Moral Hazard Effects of COVID-19 Vaccines," NBER Working Papers 30602, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Sun, Liyang & Abraham, Sarah, 2021. "Estimating dynamic treatment effects in event studies with heterogeneous treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 175-199.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Girma, Sourafel & Paton, David, 2024. "Using double-debiased machine learning to estimate the impact of Covid-19 vaccination on mortality and staff absences in elderly care homes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aslim, Erkmen G. & Fu, Wei & Tekin, Erdal & You, Shijun, 2025. "From syringes to dishes: Improving food sufficiency through vaccination," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    2. Erkmen G Aslim & Wei Fu & Chia-Lun Liu & Erdal Tekin, 2024. "Vaccination Policy, Delayed Care and Health Expenditures," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(664), pages 3096-3136.
    3. Callaway, Brantly & Li, Tong, 2023. "Policy evaluation during a pandemic," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    4. Bas Scheer & Wiljan van den Berge & Maarten Goos & Alan Manning & Anna Salomons, 2022. "Alternative Work Arrangements and Worker Outcomes: Evidence from Payrolling," CPB Discussion Paper 435, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    5. Mac Clay, Pablo & Börner, Jan & Sellare, Jorge, 2023. "Institutional and macroeconomic stability mediate the effect of auctions on renewable energy capacity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    6. Katrin Huber & Geske Rolvering, 2023. "Public child care and mothers’ career trajectories," Working Papers 228, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    7. Telegdy, Álmos, 2024. "Subsidized working capital loans and firm growth in times of crisis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    8. Alex Hollingsworth & Krzysztof Karbownik & Melissa A. Thomasson & Anthony Wray, 2024. "The Gift of a Lifetime: The Hospital, Modern Medicine, and Mortality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(7), pages 2201-2238, July.
    9. Coury, Michael & Falconer, Liam & La Nauze, Andrea, 2024. "Wildfire smoke and private provision of public air-quality monitoring," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    10. Catalina Amuedo‐Dorantes & Francisca M. Antman, 2022. "De facto immigration enforcement, ICE raid awareness, and worker engagement," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(1), pages 373-391, January.
    11. D. Mark Anderson & Yang Liang & Joseph J. Sabia, 2024. "Mandatory seatbelt laws and traffic fatalities: A reassessment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 513-521, April.
    12. Nadja van 't Hoff & Giovanni Mellace & Seetha Menon, 2025. "Gender Differences in Healthcare Utilisation -- Evidence from Unexpected Adverse Health Shocks," Papers 2509.01310, arXiv.org.
    13. Binelli, Chiara & Comi, Simona & Meschi, Elena & Pagani, Laura, 2024. "Every cloud has a silver lining: The role of study time and class recordings on university students’ performance during COVID-19," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 225(C), pages 305-328.
    14. Arne Henningsen & Guy Low & David Wuepper & Tobias Dalhaus & Hugo Storm & Dagim Belay & Stefan Hirsch, 2024. "Estimating Causal Effects with Observational Data: Guidelines for Agricultural and Applied Economists," IFRO Working Paper 2024/03, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
    15. Martti Kaila & Emily Nix & Krista Riukula, 2021. "Disparate Impacts of Job Loss by Parental Income and Implications for Intergenerational Mobility," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 53, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    16. Stefan Bauernschuster & Michael Grimm & Cathy M. Hajo, 2023. "The Impact of Margaret Sanger’s Birth Control Clinics on Early 20th Century U.S. Fertility and Mortality," CESifo Working Paper Series 10421, CESifo.
    17. Fabio Bothner & Annette Elisabeth Töller & Paul Philipp Schnase, 2022. "Do Lawsuits by ENGOs Improve Environmental Quality? Results from the Field of Air Pollution Policy in Germany," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-18, May.
    18. Dow, Wiiliam H & Godoey, Anna & Lowenstein, Christopher A & Reich, Michael, 2019. "Can Economic Policies Reduce Deaths of Despair? Working Paper #104-19," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt14f015df, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
    19. Bergvall, Sanna & Fernström, Clara & Ranehill, Eva & Sandberg, Anna, 2024. "The Impact of PhD Studies on Mental Health—A Longitudinal Population Study," Working Papers in Economics 846, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    20. Andrew G. Sutherland & Matthias Uckert & Felix W. Vetter, 2024. "Occupational Licensing and Minority Participation in Professional Labor Markets," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 62(2), pages 453-503, May.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31812. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.