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Endogenous Growth and the role of History

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  • Mervyn A. King
  • Mark Robson

Abstract

This paper presents a model in which the realizations of stochastic tax and depreciation rates determine both the level and growth rate of output: externalities to investment - learning by watching - are characterized by diminishing returns, yielding a nonlinear "technical progress function". This results in multiple steady-state growth rates. History matters. It is possible that two economies with identical "deep" parameters and initial capital stocks may cycle around different trend growth rates, depending upon the historical path of fiscal shocks. Growth and cycles interact, and the nonlinearity means that output changes cannot be decomposed into a stochastic trend and a trend-stationary process.

Suggested Citation

  • Mervyn A. King & Mark Robson, 1989. "Endogenous Growth and the role of History," NBER Working Papers 3151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3151
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    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Prescott, Edward C, 1971. "Investment Under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(5), pages 659-681, September.
    3. Nicholas Kaldor, 1975. "What is Wrong with Economic Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 89(3), pages 347-357.
    4. Danthine, Jean-Pierre & Donaldson, John B, 1981. "Stochastic Properties of Fast vs. Slow Growing Economies," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1007-1033, June.
    5. Brock, William A. & Mirman, Leonard J., 1972. "Optimal economic growth and uncertainty: The discounted case," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 479-513, June.
    6. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
    7. Canning, David J, 1988. "Increasing Returns in Industry and the Role of Agriculture in Growth," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(3), pages 463-476, September.
    8. Cohen, Wesley M & Levinthal, Daniel A, 1989. "Innovation and Learning: The Two Faces of R&D," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 569-596, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. van de Klundert, Theo & Smulders, Sjak, 1995. "Strategies for Growth in a Macroeconomic Setting," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 63(4), pages 388-411, December.
    2. van de Klundert, T.C.M.J. & Smulders, J.A., 1991. "Reconstructing growth theory : A survey," Discussion Paper 1991-46, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    3. Eric M. Engen & Jonathan Skinner, 1992. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 4223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Heger, Diana, 2004. "The Link Between Firms? Innovation Decision and the Business Cycle: An Empirical Analysis," ZEW Discussion Papers 04-85, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    5. Alan J. Auerbach, 1990. "Public Sector Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 3508, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Frédéric Lordon, 1995. "Cycles et chaos dans un modèle hétérodoxe de croissance endogène," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 46(6), pages 1405-1432.
    7. Frédéric Lordon, 1991. "Théorie de la croissance : quelques développements récents [Deuxième partie : la redécouverte des rendements croissants]," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 37(1), pages 191-243.
    8. Faini, Riccardo & de Melo, Jaime, 1991. "Fiscal issues in adjustment : an introduction," Policy Research Working Paper Series 724, The World Bank.
    9. Gilles Saint-Paul, 1994. "Les récessions sont-elles productives ? Une approche en termes de coût d'opportunité," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 45(3), pages 897-904.

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