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Trade Competition and the Decline in Union Organizing: Evidence from Certification Elections

Author

Listed:
  • Kerwin Kofi Charles
  • Matthew S. Johnson
  • Nagisa Tadjfar

Abstract

The long-term decline in U.S. workers' attempts to organize labor unions accelerated after 2000. We find that the swift rise of imports from China arising from a change in trade policy accounts for nearly all of this post-2000 acceleration: union certification elections decreased substantially among workers in manufacturing industries directly exposed to imports, but also among workers indirectly exposed through their local labor market. Consistent with a simple model of workers' decision to seek union representation, direct exposure lowered the expected wage gain from unionization, whereas indirect exposure increased the cost of job loss - both of which discourage organizing.

Suggested Citation

  • Kerwin Kofi Charles & Matthew S. Johnson & Nagisa Tadjfar, 2021. "Trade Competition and the Decline in Union Organizing: Evidence from Certification Elections," NBER Working Papers 29464, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29464
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    Cited by:

    1. Juan C. Córdoba & Anni T. Isojärvi & Haoran Li, 2023. "Endogenous Bargaining Power and Declining Labor Compensation Share," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-030, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Lai, Tat-kei & Lu, Yi & Ng, Travis, 2022. "Import Competition and Workplace Safety in the U.S. Manufacturing Sector," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 24-42.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • J41 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Labor Contracts
    • J50 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining - - - General
    • J51 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining - - - Trade Unions: Objectives, Structure, and Effects
    • J52 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining - - - Dispute Resolution: Strikes, Arbitration, and Mediation

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