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Police Force Size and Civilian Race

Author

Listed:
  • Aaron Chalfin
  • Benjamin Hansen
  • Emily K. Weisburst
  • Morgan C. Williams, Jr.

Abstract

We report the first empirical estimate of the race-specific effects of larger police forces in the United States. Each additional police officer abates approximately 0.1 homicides. In per capita terms, effects are twice as large for Black versus white victims. At the same time, larger police forces make more arrests for low-level “quality-of-life” offenses, with effects that imply a disproportionate burden for Black Americans. Notably, cities with large Black populations do not share equally in the benefits of investments in police manpower. Our results provide novel empirical support for the popular narrative that Black communities are simultaneously over and under-policed.

Suggested Citation

  • Aaron Chalfin & Benjamin Hansen & Emily K. Weisburst & Morgan C. Williams, Jr., 2020. "Police Force Size and Civilian Race," NBER Working Papers 28202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28202
    Note: LE LS PE
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    Cited by:

    1. Adams, Ian T. & Mourtgos, Scott M. & Nix, Justin, 2023. "Turnover in large US policing agencies following the George Floyd protests," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    2. Monica P Bhatt & Sara B Heller & Max Kapustin & Marianne Bertrand & Christopher Blattman, 2024. "Predicting and Preventing Gun Violence: An Experimental Evaluation of READI Chicago," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(1), pages 1-56.
    3. Brendan O'Flaherty & Rajiv Sethi & Morgan Williams, 2024. "The nature, detection, and avoidance of harmful discrimination in criminal justice," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(1), pages 289-320, January.
    4. Domínguez, Patricio & Scartascini, Carlos, 2024. "Willingness to pay for crime reduction: The role of information in the Americas," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    5. LeRoy, William, 2024. "Understanding policing in the aftermath of gun violence: Examining investigatory stops and crime in Chicago," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    6. repec:osf:socarx:dks29_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Gian Maria Campedelli, 2022. "Explainable Machine Learning for Predicting Homicide Clearance in the United States," Papers 2203.04768, arXiv.org.
    8. John Mullahy & Edward C. Norton, 2024. "Why Transform Y? The Pitfalls of Transformed Regressions with a Mass at Zero," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(2), pages 417-447, April.
    9. Cho, Sungwoo & Gonçalves, Felipe & Weisburst, Emily, 2021. "Do Police Make Too Many Arrests? The Effect of Enforcement Pullbacks on Crime," IZA Discussion Papers 14907, IZA Network @ LISER.
    10. Balcarová, Linda & Pickett, Justin T. & Graham, Amanda & Roche, Sean Patrick & Cullen, Francis T., 2024. "On the Robustness of Black Americans’ Support for the Police: Evidence From a National Experiment," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    11. Kim, Taeho, 2025. "Facilitating police reform: Body cameras, police-involved homicides, and law enforcement outcomes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    12. Kroeger, Sarah & La Mattina, Giulia, 2024. "Nuisance Ordinances and Domestic Violence," IZA Discussion Papers 17565, IZA Network @ LISER.
    13. David Bjerk, 2022. "Does greater police funding help catch more murderers?," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(3), pages 528-559, September.
    14. Jha, Chandan Kumar & Joshi, Swarup, 2023. "Municipal bankruptcies and crime," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    15. Losak, Shannon R. & Makowsky, Michael D., 2024. "Lame duck law enforcement," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    16. Gottlieb, Aaron & DiMonte, Cheryl & Bocanegra, Kathryn & Hong, Youngjin Stephanie & Peck-Block, Anna Rose, 2025. "Local government spending tradeoffs in the Great Lakes Region: Criminal legal spending, community investments, and violent death," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 382(C).
    17. Zoltán Szücs, 2024. "Economie du policing – le cas d’une police de tranquillité publique, la nouvelle police municipale de Paris," EconomiX Working Papers 2024-15, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    18. Midgette, Greg & Spreen, Thomas Luke & Porter, Lauren C. & Reuter, Peter & Hitchens, Brooklynn K., 2024. "A Model to Assess the Feasibility of 911 Call Diversion Programs," SocArXiv kct4y_v1, Center for Open Science.
    19. José María Cabrera & Alejandro Cid & Federico Veneri, 2022. "Hot Spots, Patrolling Intensity, and Robberies: Lessons from a three-year program in Uruguay," Documentos de Trabajo/Working Papers 2202, Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales y Economia. Universidad de Montevideo..
    20. Aaron Chalfin & Michael LaForest & Jacob Kaplan, 2021. "Can Precision Policing Reduce Gun Violence? Evidence from “Gang Takedowns” in New York City," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 1047-1082, September.
    21. Mikdash, Maya & Zaiour, Reem, 2024. "The impact of police shootings on gun violence and civilian cooperation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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