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Childhood Health Shocks, Comparative Advantage, and Long-Term Outcomes: Evidence from the Last Danish Polio Epidemic

Author

Listed:
  • Miriam Gensowski
  • Torben Heien Nielsen
  • Nete Munk Nielsen
  • Maya Rossin-Slater
  • Miriam Wüst

Abstract

A large literature documents that childhood health shocks have lasting negative consequences for adult outcomes. This paper demonstrates that the adversity of childhood physical disability can be mediated by individuals' educational and occupational choices, which reflect their comparative advantage. We merge records on children hospitalized with poliomyelitis during the 1952 Danish epidemic to census and administrative data, and exploit quasi-random variation in paralysis incidence. While childhood disability increases the likelihood of early retirement and disability pension receipt at age 50, paralytic polio survivors obtain higher education and are more likely to work in white-collar and computer-demanding jobs than their non-paralytic counterparts.

Suggested Citation

  • Miriam Gensowski & Torben Heien Nielsen & Nete Munk Nielsen & Maya Rossin-Slater & Miriam Wüst, 2018. "Childhood Health Shocks, Comparative Advantage, and Long-Term Outcomes: Evidence from the Last Danish Polio Epidemic," NBER Working Papers 24753, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24753
    Note: CH EH LS
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    Cited by:

    1. Serratos-Sotelo, L.;, 2019. "Were there long-term economic effects of exposure to Polio Vaccination?: An analysis of migrants to Sweden 1946-2003," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 19/19, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    2. O'Donnell, Owen, 2024. "Health and health system effects on poverty: A narrative review of global evidence," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    3. Sung‐Hee Jeon & Jungwee Park & Dafna Kohen, 2023. "Childhood‐onset disabilities and lifetime earnings growth: A longitudinal analysis," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(8), pages 1749-1766, August.
    4. Serratos-Sotelo, Luis & Bengtsson, Tommy & Nilsson, Anton, 2019. "The long-term economic effects of polio: Evidence from the introduction of the polio vaccine to Sweden in 1957," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 32-41.
    5. Keith Meyers & Melissa A. Thomasson, 2021. "Can pandemics affect educational attainment? Evidence from the polio epidemic of 1916," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 15(2), pages 231-265, May.
    6. Shen, Xiuheng & Sun, Yucheng & Zhou, Xianbo, 2025. "The political legacy of disease control: Evidence from a polio vaccination campaign in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    7. Alfano, Marco, 2022. "Islamic law and investments in children: Evidence from the Sharia introduction in Nigeria," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    8. Irene Mosca & Anne Nolan, 2025. "The Long‐Term Effects of In Utero Exposure to Rubella," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 87(4), pages 771-788, August.
    9. Mayanka Ambade & Nidhiya Menon & S. V. Subramanian, 2024. "The impact of early-life access to oral polio vaccines on disability: evidence from India," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 37(1), pages 1-25, March.
    10. Tomohiko INUI & Hiroko OKUDAIRA, 2022. "Parental Investment after Adverse Event: Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake," Discussion papers 22049, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    11. Hirani, Jonas Lau-Jensen, 2021. "Inattention or reluctance? Parental responses to vaccination reminder letters," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    12. Anders Humlum & Jakob R. Munch & Pernille Plato, 2025. "Changing Tracks: Human Capital Investment after Loss of Ability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 115(5), pages 1520-1554, May.
    13. Krzysztof Karbownik & Anthony Wray, 2019. "Educational, Labor-market and Intergenerational Consequences of Poor Childhood Health," NBER Working Papers 26368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Araújo, Daniel & Carrillo, Bladimir & Sampaio, Breno, 2021. "The Long-Run Economic Consequences of Iodine Supplementation," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I14 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Inequality
    • I24 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Inequality
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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