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Democracy by mistake

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  • Daniel Treisman

Abstract

How does democracy emerge from authoritarian rule? Influential theories contend that incumbents deliberately choose to share or surrender power. They do so to prevent revolution, motivate citizens to fight wars, incentivize governments to provide public goods, outbid elite rivals, or limit factional violence. Examining the history of all democratizations since 1800, I show that such deliberate choice arguments may help explain up to one third of cases. In about two thirds, democratization occurred not because incumbent elites chose it but because, in trying to prevent it, they made mistakes that weakened their hold on power. Common mistakes include: calling elections or starting military conflicts, only to lose them; ignoring popular unrest and being overthrown; initiating limited reforms that get out of hand; and selecting a covert democrat as leader. These mistakes reflect well-known cognitive biases such as overconfidence and the illusion of control.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Treisman, 2017. "Democracy by mistake," NBER Working Papers 23944, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23944
    Note: POL
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Illusions of Control
      by Thales ZP in NEP-HIS blog on 2018-01-25 20:47:54

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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Bjørnskov, 2020. "Why do military dictatorships become presidential democracies? Mapping the democratic interests of autocratic regimes," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 185(1), pages 21-43, October.
    2. González, Felipe & Prem, Mounu, 2018. "The value of political capital: Dictatorship collaborators as business elites," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 217-230.
    3. Felipe González & Mounu Prem, 2020. "Losing your dictator: firms during political transition," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 227-257, June.
    4. Martin Paldam, 2020. "A study of triggering events: When do political regimes change?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 182(1), pages 181-199, January.
    5. François, Abel & Méon, Pierre-Guillaume, 2021. "Politicians at higher levels of government are perceived as more corrupt," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • K00 - Law and Economics - - General - - - General (including Data Sources and Description)
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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