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Fiscal Rules, Bailouts, and Reputation in Federal Governments

Author

Listed:
  • Alessandro Dovis
  • Rishabh Kirpalani

Abstract

Expectations of transfers by central governments incentivize overborrowing by local governments. In this paper, we ask if fiscal rules can reduce overborrowing if central governments cannot commit. We study a model in which the central government’s type is unknown and show that fiscal rules increase overborrowing if the central government’s reputation is low. In contrast, fiscal rules are effective in lowering debt if the central government’s reputation is high. Even when the central government’s reputation is low, binding fiscal rules will arise in the equilibrium of a signaling game.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandro Dovis & Rishabh Kirpalani, 2017. "Fiscal Rules, Bailouts, and Reputation in Federal Governments," NBER Working Papers 23942, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23942
    Note: EFG IFM POL
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Marina Azzimonti & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2018. "International Spillovers and Bailouts," NBER Working Papers 25011, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Siming Liu & Hewei Shen, 2022. "Fiscal Commitment and Sovereign Default Risk," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 46, pages 98-123, October.
    3. Facundo Piguillem & Alessandro Riboni, 2021. "Fiscal Rules as Bargaining Chips [Growth in the Shadow of Expropriation]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(5), pages 2439-2478.
    4. Javier Bianchi & Pablo Ottonello & Ignacio Presno, 2023. "Fiscal Stimulus under Sovereign Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 131(9), pages 2328-2369.
    5. Marina Halac & Pierre Yared, 2017. "Fiscal Rules and Discretion under Self-Enforcement," NBER Working Papers 23919, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Marina Halac & Pierre Yared, 2022. "Fiscal Rules and Discretion Under Limited Enforcement," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(5), pages 2093-2127, September.
    7. Si Guo & Yun Pei & Zoe Xie, 2018. "Decentralization and Overborrowing in a Fiscal Federation," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2018-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    8. Hao Fu & Yue Liu & Pengfei Cheng & Sijie Cheng, 2022. "Evolutionary Game Analysis on Innovation Behavior of Digital Financial Enterprises under the Dynamic Reward and Punishment Mechanism of Government," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-18, October.
    9. Marina Halac & Pierre Yared, 2016. "Commitment vs. Flexibility with Costly Verification," NBER Working Papers 22936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Marina Azzimonti & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2019. "International spillovers and `ex-ante' efficient bailouts," 2019 Meeting Papers 318, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Wildmer Daniel Gregori, 2018. "To what extent do fiscal spending rules affect budget composition?," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 42(3), pages 325-345.
    12. Laura Alfaro, 2016. "Fiscal Rules and Sovereign Default," 2016 Meeting Papers 209, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Siming Liu & Hewei Shen, 2022. "Fiscal Commitment and Sovereign Default Risk," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 46, pages 98-123, October.
    14. Bellofatto, Antonio Andrés & Besfamille, Martín, 2018. "Regional state capacity and the optimal degree of fiscal decentralization," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 225-243.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • F5 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • H7 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations

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