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Fundamentally, Momentum is Fundamental Momentum

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  • Robert Novy-Marx

Abstract

Momentum in firm fundamentals, i.e., earnings momentum, explains the performance of strategies based on price momentum. Earnings surprise measures subsume past performance in cross sectional regressions of returns on firm characteristics, and the time-series performance of price momentum strategies is fully explained by their covariances with earnings momentum strategies. Controlling for earnings surprises when constructing price momentum strategies significantly reduces their performance, without reducing their high volatilities. Controlling for past performance when constructing earnings momentum strategies reduces their volatilities, and eliminates the crashes strongly associated with momentum of all types, without reducing the strategies' high average returns. While past performance does not have independent power predicting the cross section of expected returns, it does predicts stock comovements, and is thus important for explain cross sectional variation in realized returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Novy-Marx, 2015. "Fundamentally, Momentum is Fundamental Momentum," NBER Working Papers 20984, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20984
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Barroso, Pedro & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2015. "Momentum has its moments," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 111-120.
    2. Joel Hasbrouck, 2009. "Trading Costs and Returns for U.S. Equities: Estimating Effective Costs from Daily Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(3), pages 1445-1477, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mamdouh Medhat & Berardino Palazzo, 2020. "Equity Financing Risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-037, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Li, Kai, 2021. "Nonlinear effect of sentiment on momentum," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. Han, Yufeng & Hu, Ou & Huang, Zhaodan, 2023. "A tale of idiosyncratic volatility and illiquidity shocks: Their correlation and effects on stock returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    4. Pätäri, Eero & Ahmed, Sheraz & Luukka, Pasi & Yeomans, Julian Scott, 2023. "Can monthly-return rank order reveal a hidden dimension of momentum? The post-cost evidence from the U.S. stock markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    5. G. Geoffrey Booth & Ayfer Gurun, 2015. "Earnings Smoothing, Momentum and Statistical Arbitrage: Global Evidence," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 5(2), pages 48-65, December.
    6. Beyer, Anne & Smith, Kevin C., 2021. "Learning about risk-factor exposures from earnings: Implications for asset pricing and manipulation," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1).
    7. Anwer S. Ahmed & Irfan Safdar, 2018. "Dissecting stock price momentum using financial statement analysis," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(S1), pages 3-43, November.
    8. Dong, Liang & Dai, Yiqing & Haque, Tariq & Kot, Hung Wan & Yamada, Takeshi, 2022. "Coskewness and reversal of momentum returns: The US and international evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 241-264.
    9. Azevedo, Vitor, 2023. "Analysts’ underreaction and momentum strategies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    10. Maio, Paulo & Philip, Dennis, 2018. "Economic activity and momentum profits: Further evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 466-482.
    11. Chen, Li-Wen & Yu, Hsin-Yi & Wang, Wen-Kai, 2018. "Evolution of historical prices in momentum investing," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 120-135.
    12. Dahlquist, Magnus & Hasseltoft, Henrik, 2020. "Economic momentum and currency returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 152-167.
    13. Bond, Shaun & Wu, Wentao & Zheng, Suyan, 2023. "Seasonal patterns of earnings releases and post-earnings announcement drift," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 15-24.
    14. Christopher Kantos & Dan diBartolomeo, 2020. "How the pandemic taught us to turn smart beta into real alpha," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(7), pages 581-590, December.
    15. Chen, Zhanhui & Yang, Bowen, 2019. "In search of preference shock risks: Evidence from longevity risks and momentum profits," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 225-249.
    16. Dai, Yiqing & Haque, Tariq & Zurbruegg, Ralf, 2020. "Factor return forecasting using cashflow spreads," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 917-931.
    17. Guillaume Coqueret, 2022. "Characteristics-driven returns in equilibrium," Papers 2203.07865, arXiv.org.
    18. Jiaqi Guo & Peng Li & Youwei Li, 2022. "What Can Explain Momentum? Evidence from Decomposition," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(8), pages 6184-6218, August.
    19. DeMiguel, Victor & Martin-Utrera, Alberto & Nogales, Francisco J. & Uppal, Raman, 2017. "A Portfolio Perspective on the Multitude of Firm Characteristics," CEPR Discussion Papers 12417, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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