Exchange Rate Regimes and Capital Mobility: How Much of the Swoboda Thesis Survives?
Alexander Swoboda is one of the originators of the bipolar view that capital mobility creates pressure for countries to abandon intermediate exchange rate arrangements in favor of greater flexibility and harder pegs. This paper takes another look at the evidence for this hypothesis using two popular de facto classifications of exchange rate regimes. That evidence supports the bipolar view for the advanced countries, the sample for which it was originally developed, but not obviously for emerging markets and other developing countries. One interpretation of the contrast is that there is a tendency to move away from intermediate regimes in the course of economic and financial development, implying that emerging markets and other developing countries will eventually abandon intermediate regimes as well. Another interpretation is that the advanced countries have been faster to abandon soft pegs because they have been faster to develop attractive alternatives, notably Europe's monetary union. In this view, other countries are unlikely to abandon soft pegs because of the absence of the distinctive political conditions that have made the European alternative feasible. A final interpretation is that the advanced countries have been able to abandon soft peg because of their success in substituting inflation targeting for exchange rate targeting as the anchor for monetary policy. The paper presents some evidence for this view, which suggests the feasibility of further movement by emerging markets and developing countries in the direct of greater exchange rate flexibility.
|Date of creation:||Jun 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004.
"The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48, February.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2004. "The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation," MPRA Paper 14070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barry Eichengreen & Alan M. Taylor, 2003.
"The Monetary Consequences of a Free Trade Area of the Americas,"
NBER Working Papers
9666, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eichengreen, Barry & Taylor, Alan M., 2003. "The Monetary Consequences of A Free Trade Area of the Americas," CEPR Discussion Papers 3909, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Alberto Alesina & Alexander Wagner, 2003.
"Choosing (And Reneging On) Exchange Rate Regimes,"
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
2008, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Holger C. Wolf, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Choices and Consequences," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262072408, June.
- Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Federico Sturzenegger, 2003. "To Float or to Fix: Evidence on the Impact of Exchange Rate Regimes on Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1173-1193, September.
- Andrea Bubula & Inci Ã–tker, 2002. "The Evolution of Exchange Rate Regimes Since 1990: Evidence From De Facto Policies," IMF Working Papers 02/155, International Monetary Fund.
- Paul R. Masson, 2000.
"Exchange Rate Regime Transitions,"
IMF Working Papers
00/134, International Monetary Fund.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14100. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.