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Effects of U.S. Monetary Restraint on the DM-$ Exchange Rate and the German Economy

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  • Jacques R. Artus

Abstract

This paper assesses the quantitative effects of a shift to monetary restraint in the United States on the DM-$ exchange rate and the German economy. The results indicate that such effects are large. If Germany keeps its money growth unchanged, it will tend to experience a sharp and sustained depreciation of the deutsche mark and a significant increase in inflation and in unemployment. If it adopts an equivalent policy of monetary restraint, it will tend to benefit from a marked decline in inflation, but the cost in terms of lost output is extremely large.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacques R. Artus, 1982. "Effects of U.S. Monetary Restraint on the DM-$ Exchange Rate and the German Economy," NBER Working Papers 0926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0926
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    1. William H. Branson & Julio J. Rotemberg, 1991. "International Adjustment with Wage Rigidity," NBER Chapters,in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 13-44 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Barro, Robert J, 1978. "Unanticipated Money, Output, and the Price Level in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(4), pages 549-580, August.
    3. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
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