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Nonparametric modeling and forecasting electricity demand: an empirical study

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  • Han Lin Shang

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Abstract

This paper uses half-hourly electricity demand data in South Australia as an empirical study of nonparametric modeling and forecasting methods for prediction from half-hour ahead to one year ahead. A notable feature of the univariate time series of electricity demand is the presence of both intraweek and intraday seasonalities. An intraday seasonal cycle is apparent from the similarity of the demand from one day to the next, and an intraweek seasonal cycle is evident from comparing the demand on the corresponding day of adjacent weeks. There is a strong appeal in using forecasting methods that are able to capture both seasonalities. In this paper, the forecasting methods slice a seasonal univariate time series into a time series of curves. The forecasting methods reduce the dimensionality by applying functional principal component analysis to the observed data, and then utilize an univariate time series forecasting method and functional principal component regression techniques. When data points in the most recent curve are sequentially observed, updating methods can improve the point and interval forecast accuracy. We also revisit a nonparametric approach to construct prediction intervals of updated forecasts, and evaluate the interval forecast accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Han Lin Shang, 2010. "Nonparametric modeling and forecasting electricity demand: an empirical study," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 19/10, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  • Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2010-19
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    File URL: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/ebs/pubs/wpapers/2010/wp19-10.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hyndman, Rob J. & Booth, Heather, 2008. "Stochastic population forecasts using functional data models for mortality, fertility and migration," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 323-342.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Functional principal component analysis; functional time series; multivariate time series; ordinary least squares; penalized least squares; ridge regression; seasonal time series;

    JEL classification:

    • C88 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Other Computer Software
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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