Modeling Lifetime Earnings Paths: Hypothetical versus Actual Workers
To assess the distributional effects of social security reform proposals, it is essential to have good information on real-world workers’ lifetime earnings trajectories. Until recently, however, policymakers have relied on hypothetical earnings profiles for policy analysis. We use actual lifetime earnings data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to compare actual workers’ covered earnings profiles to these hypothetical profiles. We show that the hypothetical profiles do not track earnings patterns of current retirees; thus lifetime pay levels are much higher than for most HRS workers. Therefore, using hypothetical profiles could misrepresent benefits paid and taxes collected under such reforms.
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- Gustman, Alan L. & Steinmeier, Thomas L., 2001.
"How effective is redistribution under the social security benefit formula?,"
Journal of Public Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 1-28, October.
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- John F. Cogan & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2003. "Perspectives from the President's Commission on Social Security Reform," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(2), pages 149-172, Spring.
- John Karl Scholz & Ananth Seshadri & Surachai Khitatrakun, 2006.
"Are Americans Saving "Optimally" for Retirement?,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(4), pages 607-643, August.
- Josh Oâ€™Harra & John Sabelhaus & Michael Simpson, 2004. "Overview of the Congressional Budget Office Long-Term (CBOLT) Policy Simulation Model: Technical Paper 2004-01," Working Papers 15188, Congressional Budget Office.
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