IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mnh/spaper/2675.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Institutional incentives for strategic voting : the case of Portugal

Author

Listed:
  • Gschwend, Thomas

Abstract

Looking more closely at the way people form expectations about the possible outcome of the election in their electoral district I will provide evidence for the first time that strategic voting can be observed and predicted even in PR systems with large districts magnitudes, such as in Portugal. Employing district-level data from 1975-2002 I estimate that a party, who is expected to win no seat, will be strategically deserted on average by about 3 per cent of the voters. This number does systematically vary with the district magnitude of each district and is largest (> 4 per cent) in Portugal's smallest electoral districts (e.g., Beja and Évora). Nevertheless even in Portugal's largest electoral district, Lisbon, strategic voting can be observed to have a systematic impact on parties vote shares.

Suggested Citation

  • Gschwend, Thomas, 2005. "Institutional incentives for strategic voting : the case of Portugal," Papers 05-03, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    • Handle: RePEc:mnh:spaper:2675
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/2675/1/dp05_03.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cox, Gary W & Shugart, Matthew Soberg, 1996. "Strategic Voting under Proportional Representation," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(2), pages 299-324, October.
    2. Gunther, Richard, 1989. "Electoral Laws, Party Systems, and Elites: The Case of Spain," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 83(3), pages 835-858, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gschwend, Thomas, 2008. "Electoral System Change in Belgium 2003: Party Strategies and Voter Responses," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 08-29, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gschwend, Thomas, 2005. "Institutional Incentives for Strategic Voting:," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 05-03, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    2. repec:gig:joupla:v:3:y:2011:i:2:p:3-41 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Carina Bischoff, 2013. "Electorally unstable by supply or demand?—an examination of the causes of electoral volatility in advanced industrial democracies," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 156(3), pages 537-561, September.
    4. Artabe, Alaitz & Gardeazabal, Javier, 2014. "Strategic Votes and Sincere Counterfactuals," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 243-257, April.
    5. Gschwend, Thomas, 2008. "Electoral system change in Belgium 2003 : party strategies and voter responses," Papers 08-29, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    6. Gschwend, Thomas, 2005. "Tickel-splitting and strategic voting under mixed electoral rules : evidence from Germany," Papers 05-06, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    7. Marc Guinjoan & Pablo Simón & Sandra Bermúdez & Ignacio Lago, 2014. "Expectations in Mass Elections: Back to the Future?," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1346-1359, December.
    8. Michael Herrmann, 2014. "Polls, coalitions and strategic voting under proportional representation," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 26(3), pages 442-467, July.
    9. Arkadii Slinko & Shaun White, 2010. "Proportional Representation and Strategic Voters," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 22(3), pages 301-332, July.
    10. Hayrullah Dindar & Gilbert Laffond & Jean Lainé, 2021. "Referendum Paradox for Party-List Proportional Representation," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 191-220, February.
    11. Peter Buisseret & Carlo Prato, 2020. "Voting behavior under proportional representation," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 32(1), pages 96-111, January.
    12. Hangartner, Dominik & Ruiz, Nelson A. & Tukiainen, Janne, 2019. "Open or Closed? How List Type Affects Electoral Performance, Candidate Selection, and Campaign Effort," Working Papers 120, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    13. SLINKO, Arkadii & WHITE, Shaun, 2006. "On the Manipulability of Proportional Representation," Cahiers de recherche 2006-20, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    14. Matias A. Bargsted & Orit Kedar, 2009. "Coalition‐Targeted Duvergerian Voting: How Expectations Affect Voter Choice under Proportional Representation," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(2), pages 307-323, April.
    15. Ignacio Lago & Marina Costa Lobo & Santiago Lago-Peñas, 2016. "Coattail effects and electoral coordination," Working Papers. Collection B: Regional and sectoral economics 1603, Universidade de Vigo, GEN - Governance and Economics research Network.
    16. Gschwend, Thomas, 2004. "Comparative politics of strategic voting : a hierarchy of electoral systems," Papers 04-41, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    17. Kemal Kıvanç Aköz & Alexei Zakharov, 2023. "Electoral turnout with divided opposition," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 60(3), pages 439-475, April.
    18. Douglas W. Rae, 1995. "Using District Magnitude to Regulate Political Party Competition," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 65-75, Winter.
    19. Michael Herrmann, 2012. "Voter uncertainty and failure of Duverger’s law: an empirical analysis," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 63-90, April.
    20. Torregrosa Hetland, Sara, 2017. "The political economy of peripheral tax reform : the Spanish fiscal transition," Lund Papers in Economic History 156, Lund University, Department of Economic History.
    21. Dulay, Dean & Go, Laurence, 2021. "First among equals: The first place effect and political promotion in multi-member plurality elections," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mnh:spaper:2675. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Katharina Rautenberg (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sfmande.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.