IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mnh/spaper/2318.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Electoral system change in Belgium 2003 : party strategies and voter responses

Author

Listed:
  • Gschwend, Thomas

Abstract

The paper addresses two points: First, what is the effect of changes to the electoral system in Belgium and second, how do voters respond to the new electoral rules? If seat-maximization is the key link then this would lead to the prediction that parties that supported the change of the electoral system particularly the parties of the incumbent governing coalition (before the change took place for the 2003 election), should expect to fare better under the new rules than the old rules that translate votes into seats. The mechanical effects of the new electoral rules for 2003 when applied to the number of votes cast in 1995 and 1999 do have a small effect in the direction predicted by the theory. The governing parties together, particular the rancophone ones, can expect to fare better under the new rules than under the old rules. Regarding the second question, the number of Strategic Voters in a given district is typically predicted by the district magnitude, i.e. the number of seats that are awarded at the primary electoral district level. Contrary to previous studies there is strong evidence of strategic voting particularly within the small Belgian districts. This analysis further demonstrates that even the new incentives to cast a strategic vote through the need for every party to overcome 5% of the district vote share before gaining representation has already a systematic impact on the decision-making process of Belgium voters.

Suggested Citation

  • Gschwend, Thomas, 2008. "Electoral system change in Belgium 2003 : party strategies and voter responses," Papers 08-29, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
  • Handle: RePEc:mnh:spaper:2318
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/2318/1/dp08_29.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cox, Gary W & Shugart, Matthew Soberg, 1996. "Strategic Voting under Proportional Representation," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(2), pages 299-324, October.
    2. Gschwend, Thomas, 2005. "Institutional Incentives for Strategic Voting:," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 05-03, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    3. Gschwend, Thomas, 2005. "Institutional incentives for strategic voting : the case of Portugal," Papers 05-03, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:gig:joupla:v:3:y:2011:i:2:p:3-41 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Carina Bischoff, 2013. "Electorally unstable by supply or demand?—an examination of the causes of electoral volatility in advanced industrial democracies," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 156(3), pages 537-561, September.
    3. Artabe, Alaitz & Gardeazabal, Javier, 2014. "Strategic Votes and Sincere Counterfactuals," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 243-257, April.
    4. Gschwend, Thomas, 2005. "Tickel-splitting and strategic voting under mixed electoral rules : evidence from Germany," Papers 05-06, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    5. Gschwend, Thomas, 2005. "Institutional Incentives for Strategic Voting:," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 05-03, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    6. Marc Guinjoan & Pablo Simón & Sandra Bermúdez & Ignacio Lago, 2014. "Expectations in Mass Elections: Back to the Future?," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1346-1359, December.
    7. Michael Herrmann, 2014. "Polls, coalitions and strategic voting under proportional representation," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 26(3), pages 442-467, July.
    8. Arkadii Slinko & Shaun White, 2010. "Proportional Representation and Strategic Voters," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 22(3), pages 301-332, July.
    9. Hayrullah Dindar & Gilbert Laffond & Jean Lainé, 2021. "Referendum Paradox for Party-List Proportional Representation," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 191-220, February.
    10. Peter Buisseret & Carlo Prato, 2020. "Voting behavior under proportional representation," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 32(1), pages 96-111, January.
    11. Hangartner, Dominik & Ruiz, Nelson A. & Tukiainen, Janne, 2019. "Open or Closed? How List Type Affects Electoral Performance, Candidate Selection, and Campaign Effort," Working Papers 120, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    12. SLINKO, Arkadii & WHITE, Shaun, 2006. "On the Manipulability of Proportional Representation," Cahiers de recherche 2006-20, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    13. Matias A. Bargsted & Orit Kedar, 2009. "Coalition‐Targeted Duvergerian Voting: How Expectations Affect Voter Choice under Proportional Representation," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(2), pages 307-323, April.
    14. Gschwend, Thomas, 2005. "Institutional incentives for strategic voting : the case of Portugal," Papers 05-03, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    15. Gschwend, Thomas, 2004. "Comparative politics of strategic voting : a hierarchy of electoral systems," Papers 04-41, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    16. Kemal Kıvanç Aköz & Alexei Zakharov, 2023. "Electoral turnout with divided opposition," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 60(3), pages 439-475, April.
    17. Michael Herrmann, 2012. "Voter uncertainty and failure of Duverger’s law: an empirical analysis," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 63-90, April.
    18. Dulay, Dean & Go, Laurence, 2021. "First among equals: The first place effect and political promotion in multi-member plurality elections," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    19. Yoichi Hizen, 2015. "Does a Least-Preferred Candidate Win a Seat? A Comparison of Three Electoral Systems," Economies, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-35, January.
    20. Gschwend, Thomas, 2004. "Ticket-Splitting and Strategic Voting," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 05-06, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mnh:spaper:2318. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Katharina Rautenberg (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sfmande.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.