Tassi di interesse reali, rischio di lungo periodo e cicli economici
Real interest rates, long run risks and business cycles. Standard theoretical model under power utility preferences generates time series for real yields and output that are not consistent with the cyclical properties of the macroeconomic data. In particular real interest rates of the model are highly procyclical, while measured real interest rates are countercyclical. Following recent developments in equity premium literature we explore this question in a long run risk environment with generalized isoleastic preferences. This approach explains equity premium puzzle, but it fails to fit real bond prices and their dynamics in relation to business cycles if we model exogenous consumption growth with a persistent component and time-varying volatility.
|Date of creation:||29 Feb 2008|
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- Ravi Bansal & Amir Yaron, 2004.
"Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1481-1509, August.
- Ravi Bansal & Amir Yaron, 2000. "Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles," NBER Working Papers 8059, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
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- Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell, 1986. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 812, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- John Y. Campbell, 1986. "Bond and Stock Returns in a Simple Exchange Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 101(4), pages 785-803.
- John Y. Campbell, 1984. "Bond and Stock Returns in a Simple Exchange Model," NBER Working Papers 1509, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, John, 1986. "Bond and Stock Returns in a Simple Exchange Model," Scholarly Articles 3122544, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Breeden, Douglas T., 1979. "An intertemporal asset pricing model with stochastic consumption and investment opportunities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 265-296, September.
- Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-969, July.
- Beaudry, Paul & Guay, Alain, 1996. "What do interest rates reveal about the functioning of real business cycle models?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(9-10), pages 1661-1682. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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