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Tassi di interesse reali, rischio di lungo periodo e cicli economici

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  • Giorgio PIZZUTTO

Abstract

Real interest rates, long run risks and business cycles. Standard theoretical model under power utility preferences generates time series for real yields and output that are not consistent with the cyclical properties of the macroeconomic data. In particular real interest rates of the model are highly procyclical, while measured real interest rates are countercyclical. Following recent developments in equity premium literature we explore this question in a long run risk environment with generalized isoleastic preferences. This approach explains equity premium puzzle, but it fails to fit real bond prices and their dynamics in relation to business cycles if we model exogenous consumption growth with a persistent component and time-varying volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Giorgio PIZZUTTO, 2008. "Tassi di interesse reali, rischio di lungo periodo e cicli economici," Departmental Working Papers 2008-05, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    • Handle: RePEc:mil:wpdepa:2008-05
    as

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    File URL: http://wp.demm.unimi.it/files/wp/2008/DEMM-2008_005wp.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset pricing; long run risk; bond premium puzzle; business cycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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