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Estimating and predicting the distribution of the number of visits to the medical doctor

Author

Listed:
  • Jing Dai

    (Universität Kassel)

  • Stefan Sperlich

    (Université de Genève)

  • Walter Zucchini

    (Georg-August Universität Göttingen)

Abstract

In many countries the demand for health care services is of increasing importance. Especially in the industrialized world with a changing demographic structure social insurances and politics face real challenges. Reliable predictors of those demand functions will therefore become invaluable tools. This article proposes a prediction method for the distribution of the number of visits to the medical doctor for a determined population, given a sample that is not necessarily taken from that population. It uses the estimated conditional sample distribution, and it can be applied for forecast scenarios. The methods are illustrated along data from Sidney. The introduced methodology can be applied as well to any other prediction problem of discrete distributions in real, future or any fictitious population. It is therefore also an excellent tool for future predictions, scenarios and policy evaluation.

Suggested Citation

  • Jing Dai & Stefan Sperlich & Walter Zucchini, 2011. "Estimating and predicting the distribution of the number of visits to the medical doctor," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201148, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    • Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:201148
    as

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    File URL: https://www.uni-marburg.de/en/fb02/research-groups/economics/macroeconomics/research/magks-joint-discussion-papers-in-economics/papers/2011-papers/48-2011_dai.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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