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Modelling Long-Term Competitiveness of Latvia


  • Gundars Davidsons

    (Bank of Latvia)


The paper aims to measure competitiveness of exports and, hence, also competitiveness of Latvia as a state using foreign trade data. To find out whether Latvia's export capacity and the potential of competitiveness have improved after the country regained independence, a particular focus is on the respective recent dynamics. The theoretical model presented in the paper is a version of the assessment of current export dynamics. The model treats processes of the last decade as a more profound specialisation. Latvia is producing almost the same output as in the early-1990s, without much extra value added embedded in it. The EU accession undeniably boosts the export market share providing competitive advantages vis-a-vis other low-cost economies. Nonetheless, even in the presence of a positive short-term effect, it may adversely affect human capital over longer horizons. This implies that on behalf of the state a more active involvement in the build-up of industrial basis is desirable.

Suggested Citation

  • Gundars Davidsons, 2005. "Modelling Long-Term Competitiveness of Latvia," Working Papers 2005/02, Latvijas Banka.
  • Handle: RePEc:ltv:wpaper:200502

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Leamer, Edward E, 1983. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March.
    3. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    4. Kenneth J. Arrow, 1962. "The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 29(3), pages 155-173.
    5. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-963, September.
    6. Peter K. Schott, 2001. "Do Rich and Poor Countries Specialize in a Different Mix of Goods? Evidence from Product-Level US Trade Data," NBER Working Papers 8492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Brenton, Paul & Gros, Daniel, 1997. "Trade Reorientation and Recovery in Transition Economies," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 65-76, Summer.
    8. Nazrul Islam, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-1170.
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    More about this item


    competitiveness; comparative advantage; real convergence;

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F19 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Other
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence


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