Zerlegung ökonomischer Zeitreihen: Ein deterministischer und stochastischer Ansatz
The paper discusses a new seasonality hypothesis which is one part of a weighted regression approach for the decomposition of a time series into a trend, a seasonal component and an irregular component. It is shown that there exists a regression formulation leading, as in the descriptive approach in Schlicht (1981), to a unique decomposition withouit having recourse to initial values. It turns out that both solutions to the descriptive regression are conditional expected values in the stochastic specification. The decomposition as well as predciction are illustrated by examples
|Date of creation:||1984|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in Allgemeines Statistisches Archiv 2 68(1984): pp. 161-175|
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Web page: http://www.vwl.uni-muenchen.de
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- Schlicht, Ekkehart & Pauly, Ralf, 1982.
"Descriptive Seasonal Adjustment by Minimizing Perturbations,"
Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics
39247, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute of Economics (VWL).
- Schlicht, Ekkehart & Pauly, Ralf, 1983. "Descriptive Seasonal Adjustment by Minimizing Perturbations," Munich Reprints in Economics 3346, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
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