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Regímenes Cambiarios y Performance Fiscal ¿Generan los Regímenes Fijos Mayor Disciplina que los Flexibles?

  • Guillermo Javier Vúletin

El presente trabajo analiza la influencia de los regímenes cambiarios sobre la performance fiscal, focalizándose en la diferencia entre regímenes fijos y flexibles. Para hacerlo se utiliza una muestra de 83 países para el período 1974-1998, una metodología de estimación GMM para modelos de panel dinámicos propuesta por Arellano y Bond (1991) y diversas clasificaciones de regímenes cambiarios. En relación a esto último, este trabajo propone una nueva clasificación que permite captar posibles inconsistencias entre el compromiso del banco central y su comportamiento observado. Los resultados alcanzados sugieren que la influencia de los regímenes sobre la performance fiscal depende del contexto internacional, específicamente de la posibilidad de endeudamiento y de las características del sistema financiero internacional –grado de integración, volatilidad y estructura financiera dominante-. En otras palabras, depende tanto de la disponibilidad de crédito como de las condiciones o potencialidad sancionadora del sistema financiero. Se encuentra que en situaciones donde no hay originalmente disciplina fiscal y las autoridades tienen la posibilidad de financiarse con deuda con relativamente bajos costos, los regímenes fijos no proveen per se mayor disciplina fiscal que los flexibles, por el contrario, los flexibles generan mayor disciplina. En contextos con fuertes restricciones de financiamiento, los efectos disciplinadores de ambos regímenes no son sustancialmente diferentes. Mientras que en situaciones con abundancia de capitales pero donde los mismos están altamente integrados, son volátiles y sujetos posiblemente a efecto contagio, el mismo funcionamiento del sistema financiero internacional logra, a través de su potencial sanción, una mayor disciplina en economías con regímenes fijos que deseen conservarse como tales.

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Paper provided by Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata in its series Department of Economics, Working Papers with number 042.

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Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:lap:wpaper:042
Contact details of provider: Postal: Calle 48 No555 - La Plata (1900)
Phone: 21- 1466
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Web page: http://www.depeco.econo.unlp.edu.ar/doctrab.php

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