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Regímenes Cambiarios y Performance Fiscal ¿Generan los Regímenes Fijos Mayor Disciplina que los Flexibles?


  • Guillermo Javier Vúletin


El presente trabajo analiza la influencia de los regímenes cambiarios sobre la performance fiscal, focalizándose en la diferencia entre regímenes fijos y flexibles. Para hacerlo se utiliza una muestra de 83 países para el período 1974-1998, una metodología de estimación GMM para modelos de panel dinámicos propuesta por Arellano y Bond (1991) y diversas clasificaciones de regímenes cambiarios. En relación a esto último, este trabajo propone una nueva clasificación que permite captar posibles inconsistencias entre el compromiso del banco central y su comportamiento observado. Los resultados alcanzados sugieren que la influencia de los regímenes sobre la performance fiscal depende del contexto internacional, específicamente de la posibilidad de endeudamiento y de las características del sistema financiero internacional –grado de integración, volatilidad y estructura financiera dominante-. En otras palabras, depende tanto de la disponibilidad de crédito como de las condiciones o potencialidad sancionadora del sistema financiero. Se encuentra que en situaciones donde no hay originalmente disciplina fiscal y las autoridades tienen la posibilidad de financiarse con deuda con relativamente bajos costos, los regímenes fijos no proveen per se mayor disciplina fiscal que los flexibles, por el contrario, los flexibles generan mayor disciplina. En contextos con fuertes restricciones de financiamiento, los efectos disciplinadores de ambos regímenes no son sustancialmente diferentes. Mientras que en situaciones con abundancia de capitales pero donde los mismos están altamente integrados, son volátiles y sujetos posiblemente a efecto contagio, el mismo funcionamiento del sistema financiero internacional logra, a través de su potencial sanción, una mayor disciplina en economías con regímenes fijos que deseen conservarse como tales.

Suggested Citation

  • Guillermo Javier Vúletin, 2002. "Regímenes Cambiarios y Performance Fiscal ¿Generan los Regímenes Fijos Mayor Disciplina que los Flexibles?," Department of Economics, Working Papers 042, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
  • Handle: RePEc:lap:wpaper:042

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item


    regímenes cambiarios; gastos; ingresos; déficits; sistema financiero internacional; panel data; instrumentos internos; GMM.;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics


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