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A Nonparametric Quantile Analysis of Intergenerational Mobility in China

Author

Listed:
  • Zongwu Cai

    (Department of Economics, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA)

  • Weitong Wang

    (School of Economics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian, Liaoning 116025, China)

  • Jing Yuan

    (School of Statistics, Shandong Technology and Business University, Yantai, Shandong 264005, China)

Abstract

Scientifically measuring intergenerational mobility (IGM) and comprehensively analyzing the effects of factors influencing IGM provide a theoretical basis to improve public policies. This paper measures the elasticity of IGM in China and investigates the interaction effects of macro and micro influencing factors using a nonparametric gradient boosting tree quantile regression model. The empirical results show that, first, the gradient boosting tree quantile regression model fits better than the linear quantile regression model, with particularly significant nonlinear characteristics among those with annual incomes between ¥30,000 and ¥150,000. The intergenerational income elasticity in China ranges from 0.1861 to 0.7026, indicating a clear ``strong at both ends and weak in the middle'' effect of parental income on offspring income. Second, intergenerational income mobility exhibits heterogeneity in both income and region, with significant differences in the income transmission process and degree of nonlinearity across different regions. Third, this paper specifically explores the IGM characteristics of the two income groups, revealing that the most significant influencing factors for achieving income stratification are economic growth, industrial optimization, intergenerational educational mobility, and wealth capital investment. Finally, this paper explores the poverty trap from the perspective of IGM, showing that in eastern regions, children from wealthy families may experience higher immobility or a wealth trap, while in other regions, children from impoverished families experience higher immobility or a poverty trap.

Suggested Citation

  • Zongwu Cai & Weitong Wang & Jing Yuan, 2025. "A Nonparametric Quantile Analysis of Intergenerational Mobility in China," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202602, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2026.
    • Handle: RePEc:kan:wpaper:202602
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being

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