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Accounting for climate transition risk in banks' capital requirements

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This paper uses a stylized simulation model to assess the potential impact of transition risk on banks' balance sheets and establishes a basis for calibrating relevant macro-prudential instruments. We show that even in the short run, a fire-sale mechanism could amplify an initially contained shock on high-carbon assets into a systemic crisis with significant losses for the EU banking sector. We calculate that an additional capital buffer of 0.5% RWA on average would be sufficient to protect the system. Moreover, under an orderly transition, the decrease in banks’ transition risk exposure due to the greening of the economy would reduce the effect of a fire-sale by a factor of 10.

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  • Alessi, Lucia & Di Girolamo, Francesca Erica & Pagano, Andrea & Petracco Giudici, Marco, 2022. "Accounting for climate transition risk in banks' capital requirements," JRC Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2022-08, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    • Handle: RePEc:jrs:wpaper:202208
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    1. Campiglio, Emanuele, 2016. "Beyond carbon pricing: The role of banking and monetary policy in financing the transition to a low-carbon economy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 220-230.
    2. Diluiso, Francesca & Annicchiarico, Barbara & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Minx, Jan C., 2021. "Climate actions and macro-financial stability: The role of central banks," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    3. Dafermos, Yannis & Nikolaidi, Maria, 2021. "How can green differentiated capital requirements affect climate risks? A dynamic macrofinancial analysis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    4. D’Orazio, Paola & Popoyan, Lilit, 2019. "Fostering green investments and tackling climate-related financial risks: Which role for macroprudential policies?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 25-37.
    5. Benczur, Peter & Cannas, Giuseppina & Cariboni, Jessica & Di Girolamo, Francesca & Maccaferri, Sara & Petracco Giudici, Marco, 2017. "Evaluating the effectiveness of the new EU bank regulatory framework: A farewell to bail-out?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 207-223.
    6. Francesca Erica Di Girolamo & Andrea Pagano & Marco Petracco, 2017. "Does CRDIV Provide an Efficient Way to Deal with Banks' Simultaneous Defaults?," Journal of Financial Management, Markets and Institutions, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 193-216.
    7. Jakob Thomä & Kyra Gibhardt, 2019. "Quantifying the potential impact of a green supporting factor or brown penalty on European banks and lending," Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 27(3), pages 380-394, May.
    8. Dunz, Nepomuk & Naqvi, Asjad & Monasterolo, Irene, 2021. "Climate sentiments, transition risk, and financial stability in a stock-flow consistent model," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    9. Riccardo Lisa & Stefano Zedda & Francesco Vallascas & Francesca Campolongo & Massimo Marchesi, 2011. "Modelling Deposit Insurance Scheme Losses in a Basel 2 Framework," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 123-141, December.
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    11. Yannis Dafermos & Maria Nikolaidi, 2021. "How can green differentiated capital requirements affect climate risks?," FMM Working Paper 63-2021, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Bartsch, Florian & Busies, Iulia & Emambakhsh, Tina & Grill, Michael & Simoens, Mathieu & Spaggiari, Martina & Tamburrini, Fabio, 2024. "Designing a macroprudential capital buffer for climate-related risks," Working Paper Series 2943, European Central Bank.
    3. Han, Linna & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul & Wang, Xianzi & Alharbi, Samar S. & Wang, Yong, 2024. "Will fighting climate change affect commercial banks? A carbon tax policy simulation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Green transition risk; dynamic balance sheet; banking crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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