IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/jrs/wpaper/202208.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Accounting for climate transition risk in banks' capital requirements

Author

Listed:

Abstract

This paper uses a stylized simulation model to assess the potential impact of transition risk on banks' balance sheets and establishes a basis for calibrating relevant macro-prudential instruments. We show that even in the short run, a fire-sale mechanism could amplify an initially contained shock on high-carbon assets into a systemic crisis with significant losses for the EU banking sector. We calculate that an additional capital buffer of 0.5% RWA on average would be sufficient to protect the system. Moreover, under an orderly transition, the decrease in banks’ transition risk exposure due to the greening of the economy would reduce the effect of a fire-sale by a factor of 10.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessi, Lucia & Di Girolamo, Francesca Erica & Pagano, Andrea & Petracco Giudici, Marco, 2022. "Accounting for climate transition risk in banks' capital requirements," JRC Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2022-08, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
  • Handle: RePEc:jrs:wpaper:202208
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/publications/accounting-climate-transition-risk-banks-capital-requirements_en
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Campiglio, Emanuele, 2016. "Beyond carbon pricing: The role of banking and monetary policy in financing the transition to a low-carbon economy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 220-230.
    2. Diluiso, Francesca & Annicchiarico, Barbara & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Minx, Jan C., 2021. "Climate actions and macro-financial stability: The role of central banks," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    3. Dafermos, Yannis & Nikolaidi, Maria, 2021. "How can green differentiated capital requirements affect climate risks? A dynamic macrofinancial analysis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    4. D’Orazio, Paola & Popoyan, Lilit, 2019. "Fostering green investments and tackling climate-related financial risks: Which role for macroprudential policies?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 25-37.
    5. Benczur, Peter & Cannas, Giuseppina & Cariboni, Jessica & Di Girolamo, Francesca & Maccaferri, Sara & Petracco Giudici, Marco, 2017. "Evaluating the effectiveness of the new EU bank regulatory framework: A farewell to bail-out?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 207-223.
    6. Francesca Erica Di Girolamo & Andrea Pagano & Marco Petracco, 2017. "Does CRDIV Provide an Efficient Way to Deal with Banks' Simultaneous Defaults?," Journal of Financial Management, Markets and Institutions, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 193-216.
    7. Jakob Thomä & Kyra Gibhardt, 2019. "Quantifying the potential impact of a green supporting factor or brown penalty on European banks and lending," Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 27(3), pages 380-394, May.
    8. Dunz, Nepomuk & Naqvi, Asjad & Monasterolo, Irene, 2021. "Climate sentiments, transition risk, and financial stability in a stock-flow consistent model," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    9. Riccardo Lisa & Stefano Zedda & Francesco Vallascas & Francesca Campolongo & Massimo Marchesi, 2011. "Modelling Deposit Insurance Scheme Losses in a Basel 2 Framework," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 123-141, December.
    10. Alessi, Lucia & Battiston, Stefano, 2022. "Two sides of the same coin: Green Taxonomy alignment versus transition risk in financial portfolios," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    11. Yannis Dafermos & Maria Nikolaidi, 2021. "How can green differentiated capital requirements affect climate risks?," FMM Working Paper 63-2021, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Beyer, Andreas & Schreiner, Lena, 2024. "The impact of ECB Banking Supervision on climate risk and sustainable finance," Working Paper Series 2952, European Central Bank.
    2. Bartsch, Florian & Busies, Iulia & Emambakhsh, Tina & Grill, Michael & Simoens, Mathieu & Spaggiari, Martina & Tamburrini, Fabio, 2024. "Designing a macroprudential capital buffer for climate-related risks," Working Paper Series 2943, European Central Bank.
    3. Han, Linna & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul & Wang, Xianzi & Alharbi, Samar S. & Wang, Yong, 2024. "Will fighting climate change affect commercial banks? A carbon tax policy simulation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bartsch, Florian & Busies, Iulia & Emambakhsh, Tina & Grill, Michael & Simoens, Mathieu & Spaggiari, Martina & Tamburrini, Fabio, 2024. "Designing a macroprudential capital buffer for climate-related risks," Working Paper Series 2943, European Central Bank.
    2. Xing, Xiaoyun & Gu, Xuesong & Guo, Kun & Deng, Jing, 2024. "The interactive impact of green supporting factors on bank credit creation: An agent-based stock-flow consistent approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(PB).
    3. Yannis Dafermos, 2022. "Climate change, central banking and financial supervision: beyond the risk exposure approach," Chapters, in: Sylvio Kappes & Louis-Philippe Rochon & Guillaume Vallet (ed.), The Future of Central Banking, chapter 8, pages 175-194, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Donato Masciandaro & Riccardo Russo, 2022. "Central Banks and Climate Policy: Unpleasant Trade–Offs? A Principal–Agent Approach," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 22181, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    5. Xing, Xiaoyun & Guo, Kun & Zhang, Dayong & Ji, Qiang, 2024. "On the interactive effects of climate policies: Insights from a stock-flow consistent model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 358(C).
    6. Donato Masciandaro & Romano Vincenzo Tarsia, 2021. "Society, Politicians, Climate Change and Central Banks: An Index of Green Activism," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21167, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    7. Xing, Xiaoyun & Pan, Huanxue & Deng, Jing, 2022. "Carbon tax in a stock-flow consistent model: The role of commercial banks in financing low-carbon transition," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    8. Dafermos, Yannis & Nikolaidi, Maria, 2022. "Greening capital requirements," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 37779, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
    9. Donia Aloui & Brahim Gaies & Rafla Hchaichi, 2023. "Exploring environmental degradation spillovers in Sub-Saharan Africa: the energy–financial instability nexus," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 1699-1724, June.
    10. Donato Masciandaro & Romano Vincenzo Tarsia, 2021. "Society, Politicians, Climate Change and Central Banks: An Index of Green Activism," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21167, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    11. Beyer, Andreas & Schreiner, Lena, 2024. "The impact of ECB Banking Supervision on climate risk and sustainable finance," Working Paper Series 2952, European Central Bank.
    12. Grill, Michael & Popescu, Alexandra & Rancoita, Elena, 2024. "Climate transition risk in the banking sector: what can prudential regulation do?," Working Paper Series 2910, European Central Bank.
    13. Dafermos, Yannis & Nikolaidi, Maria, 2022. "Assessing climate policies: an ecological stock–flow consistent perspective," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 38039, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
    14. Huang, Bihong & Punzi, Maria Teresa & Wu, Yu, 2022. "Environmental regulation and financial stability: Evidence from Chinese manufacturing firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    15. Liu, Zhonglu & He, Shuguang & Men, Wenjiao & Sun, Haibo, 2024. "Impact of climate risk on financial stability: Cross-country evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    16. Gourdel, Régis & Monasterolo, Irene & Dunz, Nepomuk & Mazzocchetti, Andrea & Parisi, Laura, 2024. "The double materiality of climate physical and transition risks in the euro area," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    17. Nicolás Aguila & Joscha Wullweber, 2024. "Greener and cheaper: green monetary policy in the era of inflation and high interest rates," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(1), pages 39-60, March.
    18. Fan, Wenna & Wang, Feng & Zhang, Hao & Yan, Bin & Ling, Rui & Jiang, Hongfei, 2024. "Is climate change fueling commercial banks’ non-performing loan ratio? Empirical evidence from 31 provinces in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
    19. Dafermos, Yannis & Nikolaidi, Maria, 2021. "How can green differentiated capital requirements affect climate risks? A dynamic macrofinancial analysis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    20. Chan, Ying Tung & Punzi, Maria Teresa & Zhao, Hong, 2024. "Green transition and financial stability: The role of green monetary and macroprudential policies and vouchers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Green transition risk; dynamic balance sheet; banking crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jrs:wpaper:202208. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Benczur (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipjrces.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.